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Thesis · thesis_mnypxe1c_mha14k
HYPE

HYPE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T14:30:27Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -2.22%.

  • Closed -2.22% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$44.1334
Entry high
$44.6662
Target 1
$46.4458
Target 2
$47.6998
Stop loss
$42.7498
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
58.3
Bullish
ADX 14
31.7
Trending
ATR 14
2.77
3.81% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75.30
Lower 68.24
inside
SMA stack
2071.77
5066.33
20051.59
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $72.6360 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
60.6061 HYPE
$2.69K
Leverage
0.27x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 46.4458
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 47.6998
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 42.7498
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 86.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (latest asset) scored 18.4, returned 17.44%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 86.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 43.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $42.7498, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. HYPE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price44.40
Timestamp1776176852233
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 67.81,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 1.17,
    "signal": 0.96,
    "histogram": 0.21
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.34,
    "middle": 42.42,
    "lower": 39.49,
    "width": 13.78
  },
  "sma20": 42.42,
  "sma50": 40.33,
  "sma200": 38.77,
  "ema12": 43.38,
  "ema26": 42.2,
  "atr14": 1.1,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 64.7,
    "d": 67.54
  },
  "adx14": 43.67,
  "obv": 1098295.9701603395
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776176852232,
    "price": 44.39980286,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.08,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": -0.08
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.29,
        "middle": 44.81,
        "lower": 44.33,
        "width": 2.15
      },
      "sma20": 44.81,
      "sma50": 44.81,
      "sma200": 42.71,
      "ema12": 44.68,
      "ema26": 44.76,
      "atr14": 0.27,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 40.57,
        "d": 14.86
      },
      "adx14": 20.64,
      "obv": 59472.880761000015
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776176852232,
    "price": 44.39980286,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.52,
        "signal": 0.67,
        "histogram": -0.14
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.5,
        "middle": 44.57,
        "lower": 43.65,
        "width": 4.16
      },
      "sma20": 44.57,
      "sma50": 42.79,
      "sma200": 40.29,
      "ema12": 44.62,
      "ema26": 44.1,
      "atr14": 0.55,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 38.61,
        "d": 44.87
      },
      "adx14": 48.15,
      "obv": 205424.92814134015
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776176852233,
    "price": 44.39980286,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.17,
        "signal": 0.96,
        "histogram": 0.21
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.34,
        "middle": 42.42,
        "lower": 39.49,
        "width": 13.78
      },
      "sma20": 42.42,
      "sma50": 40.33,
      "sma200": 38.77,
      "ema12": 43.38,
      "ema26": 42.2,
      "atr14": 1.1,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.7,
        "d": 67.54
      },
      "adx14": 43.67,
      "obv": 1098295.9701603395
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776176852233,
    "price": 44.39980286,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.99,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.69,
        "signal": 1.06,
        "histogram": 0.63
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.12,
        "middle": 38.77,
        "lower": 33.42,
        "width": 27.61
      },
      "sma20": 38.77,
      "sma50": 36.4,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 40.69,
      "ema26": 39,
      "atr14": 2.41,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.33,
        "d": 78.68
      },
      "adx14": 25.55,
      "obv": 408286.68040664954
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest928531713.37
Price44.40
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.14
Leverage2
Stop loss42.75
Take profit47.70
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.72
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score86.70
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence82.80
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 86.7.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.40
Note
Recent thesis made partial progress before failing; wait for a cleaner reclaim instead of rushing a reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score33.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$44.3998
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$928.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses