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Thesis · thesis_mnyqoo29_45albo
CAKE

CAKE

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T14:51:39Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.87%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.97% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$1.6025
Entry high
$1.6145
Target 1
$1.6457
Target 2
$1.6685
Stop loss
$1.5785
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.4
Bearish
ADX 14
29.3
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
2.25% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 1.53
Lower 1.29
inside
SMA stack
201.41
501.40
2001.47
TA Workspace · CAKE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

CAKE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $1.3321 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 CAKE
$5.36K
Leverage
0.54x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.6457
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.6685
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 1.5785
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open CAKE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 124.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (latest asset) scored 16.5, returned 9.06%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 33.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $1.5785, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • RSI 72.6 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
CAKE Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. CAKE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
CAKE
Price1.61
Timestamp1776178133159
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 72.59,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.03,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.61,
    "middle": 1.51,
    "lower": 1.41,
    "width": 13.06
  },
  "sma20": 1.51,
  "sma50": 1.49,
  "sma200": 1.43,
  "ema12": 1.55,
  "ema26": 1.52,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 73.9,
    "d": 76.92
  },
  "adx14": 33.24,
  "obv": 138475.35695999998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1776178133158,
    "price": 1.6085,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.64,
        "middle": 1.59,
        "lower": 1.54,
        "width": 6.04
      },
      "sma20": 1.59,
      "sma50": 1.58,
      "sma200": 1.52,
      "ema12": 1.61,
      "ema26": 1.59,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 39.89,
        "d": 66.48
      },
      "adx14": 27.9,
      "obv": 62804.258599999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1776178133158,
    "price": 1.6085,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.62,
        "middle": 1.58,
        "lower": 1.55,
        "width": 4.14
      },
      "sma20": 1.58,
      "sma50": 1.53,
      "sma200": 1.49,
      "ema12": 1.59,
      "ema26": 1.57,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 48.56,
        "d": 67.03
      },
      "adx14": 49.21,
      "obv": 69787.23474999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Dark Cloud Cover"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1776178133159,
    "price": 1.6085,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.61,
        "middle": 1.51,
        "lower": 1.41,
        "width": 13.06
      },
      "sma20": 1.51,
      "sma50": 1.49,
      "sma200": 1.43,
      "ema12": 1.55,
      "ema26": 1.52,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.9,
        "d": 76.92
      },
      "adx14": 33.24,
      "obv": 138475.35695999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "CAKE",
    "timestamp": 1776178133159,
    "price": 1.6085,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.25,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.59,
        "middle": 1.44,
        "lower": 1.29,
        "width": 21.33
      },
      "sma20": 1.44,
      "sma50": 1.4,
      "sma200": 2.01,
      "ema12": 1.5,
      "ema26": 1.45,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.54,
        "d": 82.44
      },
      "adx14": 22.42,
      "obv": -1456521.591249999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2033506.89
Price1.61
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss1.58
Take profit1.67
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.87
Warnings
  • RSI 72.6 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for CAKE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.5
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.80
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.5
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0.70
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$1.6085
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$2.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See CAKE chart with overlay More thesesAll CAKE theses