EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mnyqz65n_xrzum9
LINK

LINK

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T14:59:49Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.08%.

  • Closed -1.08% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.1191
Entry high
$9.2151
Target 1
$9.435
Target 2
$9.5991
Stop loss
$8.9271
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
38.0
Bearish
ADX 14
31.1
Trending
ATR 14
0.2100
2.47% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 9.41
Lower 8.25
inside
SMA stack
208.83
509.03
2009.62
TA Workspace · LINK
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LINK · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $8.5130 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
416.6667 LINK
$3.82K
Leverage
0.38x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.435
+1.12R$111.63(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 9.5991
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 8.9271
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LINK on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 84.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 23.5, returned 16.24%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.8.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.2, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $8.9271, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
LINK Long: constructive command with guarded risk

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. LINK cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LINK
Timestamp1776178626481
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 58.82,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.06,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0.05
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.37,
    "middle": 8.96,
    "lower": 8.54,
    "width": 9.17
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0.16,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 46.16
  },
  "adx14": 24.18,
  "obv": -272874.0970561602
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1776178626480,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.26,
        "middle": 9.18,
        "lower": 9.11,
        "width": 1.65
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.04,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 43.93
      },
      "adx14": 23.34,
      "obv": 144455.11227031992
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1776178626480,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.07,
        "signal": 0.09,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.4,
        "middle": 9.18,
        "lower": 8.95,
        "width": 4.92
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.08,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 17.6
      },
      "adx14": 33.76,
      "obv": 118382.81189598
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1776178626481,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.37,
        "middle": 8.96,
        "lower": 8.54,
        "width": 9.17
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 46.16
      },
      "adx14": 24.18,
      "obv": -272874.0970561602
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LINK",
    "timestamp": 1776178626481,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": -0.03,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.39,
        "middle": 8.85,
        "lower": 8.3,
        "width": 12.35
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.44,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 42.06
      },
      "adx14": 9.06,
      "obv": -10112535.560455503
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest52732324.56
Price9.17
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.69
Leverage2
Stop loss8.93
Take profit9.60
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.62
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LINK; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.5
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score98.80
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence90.80
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.5
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.8.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.40
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.40
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.1671
Funding rate
0.0047%
Open interest
$52.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See LINK chart with overlay More thesesAll LINK theses