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Thesis · thesis_mnyrzvzu_uo8x6w
HYPE

HYPE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T15:28:18Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.65%.

  • Closed -0.65% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$43.2644
Entry high
$43.7116
Target 1
$44.8743
Target 2
$45.724
Stop loss
$42.37
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
58.4
Bullish
ADX 14
31.5
Trending
ATR 14
2.74
3.77% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75.31
Lower 68.24
inside
SMA stack
2071.77
5066.33
20051.59
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $72.6640 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
89.4454 HYPE
$3.89K
Leverage
0.39x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 44.8743
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 45.724
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 42.37
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 108.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 18.4, returned 17.44%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 43.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $42.3700, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: constructive command with guarded risk

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. HYPE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price43.49
Timestamp1776180324209
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.84,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 1.1,
    "signal": 0.95,
    "histogram": 0.15
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.19,
    "middle": 42.37,
    "lower": 39.55,
    "width": 13.33
  },
  "sma20": 42.37,
  "sma50": 40.31,
  "sma200": 38.77,
  "ema12": 43.24,
  "ema26": 42.14,
  "atr14": 1.14,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 50.59,
    "d": 62.84
  },
  "adx14": 43,
  "obv": 1074620.5256993396
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776180324208,
    "price": 43.488,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 28.06,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.27,
        "signal": -0.12,
        "histogram": -0.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.56,
        "middle": 44.59,
        "lower": 43.62,
        "width": 4.34
      },
      "sma20": 44.59,
      "sma50": 44.73,
      "sma200": 42.78,
      "ema12": 44.22,
      "ema26": 44.5,
      "atr14": 0.31,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.38,
        "d": 10.38
      },
      "adx14": 28.67,
      "obv": 49712.79328966
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776180324208,
    "price": 43.488,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.34,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.36,
        "signal": 0.6,
        "histogram": -0.24
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.55,
        "middle": 44.54,
        "lower": 43.52,
        "width": 4.56
      },
      "sma20": 44.54,
      "sma50": 42.84,
      "sma200": 40.32,
      "ema12": 44.37,
      "ema26": 44.01,
      "atr14": 0.56,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.11,
        "d": 13.79
      },
      "adx14": 44.46,
      "obv": 180640.94143133008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776180324209,
    "price": 43.488,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.1,
        "signal": 0.95,
        "histogram": 0.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.19,
        "middle": 42.37,
        "lower": 39.55,
        "width": 13.33
      },
      "sma20": 42.37,
      "sma50": 40.31,
      "sma200": 38.77,
      "ema12": 43.24,
      "ema26": 42.14,
      "atr14": 1.14,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50.59,
        "d": 62.84
      },
      "adx14": 43,
      "obv": 1074620.5256993396
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776180324209,
    "price": 43.488,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.26,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.62,
        "signal": 1.04,
        "histogram": 0.57
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 43.89,
        "middle": 38.72,
        "lower": 33.55,
        "width": 26.71
      },
      "sma20": 38.72,
      "sma50": 36.39,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 40.55,
      "ema26": 38.94,
      "atr14": 2.44,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.86,
        "d": 76.19
      },
      "adx14": 25.55,
      "obv": 27724.325108089542
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest913377738.05
Price43.49
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.71
Leverage2
Stop loss42.37
Take profit45.72
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.57
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.50
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-7.80
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score57.10
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$43.488
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$913.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses