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Thesis · thesis_mnyu2v6n_iw10f4
AVAX

AVAX

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T16:27:08Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.48%.

  • Closed -1.48% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.4132
Entry high
$9.5268
Target 1
$9.7881
Target 2
$9.983
Stop loss
$9.185
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.1
Bearish
ADX 14
27.9
Trending
ATR 14
0.2000
2.41% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 9.27
Lower 8.04
inside
SMA stack
208.65
508.86
2009.33
TA Workspace · AVAX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

AVAX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $8.2881 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
350.8772 AVAX
$3.32K
Leverage
0.33x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.7881
+1.12R$111.61(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 9.983
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 9.185
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open AVAX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 83.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 26.6, returned 23.59%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 77.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 24.1, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $9.1850, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
AVAX Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. AVAX cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
AVAX
Timestamp1776183837456
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.49,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.06,
    "signal": 0.03,
    "histogram": 0.03
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.66,
    "middle": 9.25,
    "lower": 8.85,
    "width": 8.76
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0.19,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 41.13
  },
  "adx14": 24.09,
  "obv": -53686.46362508999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776183837454,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.51,
        "middle": 9.41,
        "lower": 9.31,
        "width": 2.13
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 46.15
      },
      "adx14": 18.51,
      "obv": 58355.21959295001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776183837455,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.06,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.61,
        "middle": 9.44,
        "lower": 9.28,
        "width": 3.43
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.09,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 31.62
      },
      "adx14": 25.96,
      "obv": 62536.97792951
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776183837456,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.66,
        "middle": 9.25,
        "lower": 8.85,
        "width": 8.76
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.19,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 41.13
      },
      "adx14": 24.09,
      "obv": -53686.46362508999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776183837456,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": -0.05,
        "histogram": 0.07
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.68,
        "middle": 9.08,
        "lower": 8.49,
        "width": 13.16
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.53,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 47.56
      },
      "adx14": 9.2,
      "obv": -4445384.136289029
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest51491643.32
Price9.47
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.50
Leverage2
Stop loss9.19
Take profit9.98
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.01
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for AVAX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score77
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence72
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.6
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 77.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score1.40
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score24.10
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.47
Funding rate
-0.0011%
Open interest
$51.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See AVAX chart with overlay More thesesAll AVAX theses