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Thesis · thesis_mnyy4ae7_g9s3nw
LDO

LDO

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T18:19:41Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.55%.

  • Closed -1.55% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3487
Entry high
$0.3529
Target 1
$0.3694
Target 2
$0.3808
Stop loss
$0.3358
LDO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.38520.36090.33660.31230.2880.31235/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
44.1
Bearish
ADX 14
20.8
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
3.20% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.3400
Lower 0.3000
inside
SMA stack
200.3200
500.3200
2000.3600
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · LDO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LDO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.312140 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 LDO
$2.34K
Leverage
0.23x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3694
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.3808
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.3358
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LDO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 125.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 23.9, returned 20.83%, win rate 55.6%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 28.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3358, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable.

Final thesis
LDO Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable. LDO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LDO
Price0.35
Timestamp1776190617170
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 61.91,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.37,
    "middle": 0.33,
    "lower": 0.29,
    "width": 23.26
  },
  "sma20": 0.33,
  "sma50": 0.32,
  "sma200": 0.31,
  "ema12": 0.34,
  "ema26": 0.33,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 65,
    "d": 75.08
  },
  "adx14": 28.5,
  "obv": 1083266.5526238696
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776190617169,
    "price": 0.3508,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 10.55
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 18.1,
        "d": 15.01
      },
      "adx14": 22.98,
      "obv": -78562.63872167002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776190617169,
    "price": 0.3508,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 8
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 13.1,
        "d": 7.82
      },
      "adx14": 47.57,
      "obv": -304140.7368290398
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776190617170,
    "price": 0.3508,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 23.26
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.31,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65,
        "d": 75.08
      },
      "adx14": 28.5,
      "obv": 1083266.5526238696
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776190617170,
    "price": 0.3508,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.07,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.35,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 20.66
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.58,
      "ema12": 0.33,
      "ema26": 0.32,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 56.39,
        "d": 43.05
      },
      "adx14": 24.6,
      "obv": -16582714.6471465
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest6630002.43
Price0.35
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.86
Leverage2
Stop loss0.34
Take profit0.38
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.28
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LDO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence88.20
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-7.20
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score64
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3508
Funding rate
0.0007%
Open interest
$6.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See LDO chart with overlay More thesesAll LDO theses