EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mnz25o4d_7hjjlo
AVAX

AVAX

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T20:12:46Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.04%.

  • Closed -0.04% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.318
Entry high
$9.352
Target 1
$9.4299
Target 2
$9.488
Stop loss
$9.25
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.1
Bearish
ADX 14
27.9
Trending
ATR 14
0.2000
2.41% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 9.27
Lower 8.04
inside
SMA stack
208.65
508.86
2009.33
TA Workspace · AVAX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

AVAX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $8.2881 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1,176.4706 AVAX
$10.98K
Leverage
1.10x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$5.0850
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 9.4299
+1.12R$111.65(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 9.488
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 9.25
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open AVAX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 84.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 26.6, returned 23.59%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 77.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 23.2, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $9.2500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
AVAX Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. AVAX cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
AVAX
Price9.34
Timestamp1776197422339
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 52.18,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.05,
    "signal": 0.04,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.66,
    "middle": 9.25,
    "lower": 8.85,
    "width": 8.8
  },
  "sma20": 9.25,
  "sma50": 9.21,
  "sma200": 9.3,
  "ema12": 9.34,
  "ema26": 9.29,
  "atr14": 0.19,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 50.66,
    "d": 56.28
  },
  "adx14": 23.18,
  "obv": -72340.22766373
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776197422338,
    "price": 9.335,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.02,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.5,
        "middle": 9.38,
        "lower": 9.25,
        "width": 2.66
      },
      "sma20": 9.38,
      "sma50": 9.4,
      "sma200": 9.28,
      "ema12": 9.35,
      "ema26": 9.37,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 46.3,
        "d": 50
      },
      "adx14": 22.32,
      "obv": 50262.8820723
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776197422338,
    "price": 9.335,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.64,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": -0.02
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.52,
        "middle": 9.41,
        "lower": 9.3,
        "width": 2.33
      },
      "sma20": 9.41,
      "sma50": 9.28,
      "sma200": 9.21,
      "ema12": 9.38,
      "ema26": 9.37,
      "atr14": 0.1,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 37.88,
        "d": 32.83
      },
      "adx14": 21.75,
      "obv": 58547.55002130002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776197422339,
    "price": 9.335,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.18,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.05,
        "signal": 0.04,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.66,
        "middle": 9.25,
        "lower": 8.85,
        "width": 8.8
      },
      "sma20": 9.25,
      "sma50": 9.21,
      "sma200": 9.3,
      "ema12": 9.34,
      "ema26": 9.29,
      "atr14": 0.19,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50.66,
        "d": 56.28
      },
      "adx14": 23.18,
      "obv": -72340.22766373
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776197422339,
    "price": 9.335,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": -0.04,
        "histogram": 0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.61,
        "middle": 9.07,
        "lower": 8.52,
        "width": 12.08
      },
      "sma20": 9.07,
      "sma50": 9.27,
      "sma200": 13.91,
      "ema12": 9.26,
      "ema26": 9.24,
      "atr14": 0.53,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.76,
        "d": 70.82
      },
      "adx14": 9.2,
      "obv": -4522688.922116989
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest50855298.94
Price9.34
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss9.25
Take profit9.49
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.91
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for AVAX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.6
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score77.70
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence72.50
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 26.6
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 77.7.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score1.40
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.335
Funding rate
0.0037%
Open interest
$50.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See AVAX chart with overlay More thesesAll AVAX theses