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Thesis · thesis_mnz28sh1_ujb4fx
ZEC

ZEC

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T20:15:12Z · expires 2026-04-16

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.76%.

  • Closed +0.76% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$346.446
Entry high
$348.454
Target 1
$353.6748
Target 2
$357.49
Stop loss
$342.43
ZEC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
662.44578.63494.82411327.19611.995/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
60.9
Bullish
ADX 14
28.3
Trending
ATR 14
30.56
5.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 623.77
Lower 519.83
inside
SMA stack
20571.80
50557.68
200550.27
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · ZEC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ZEC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $611.7500 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
19.9203 ZEC
$6.92K
Leverage
0.69x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 353.6748
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 357.49
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 342.43
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ZEC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 91.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 36.1, returned 41.45%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. MACD MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 60.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 31.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $342.4300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ZEC Long: selective command with guarded risk

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. ZEC cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ZEC
Price347.45
Timestamp1776197563142
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 44.86,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 2.45,
    "signal": 6.19,
    "histogram": -3.74
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 377.27,
    "middle": 362.69,
    "lower": 348.12,
    "width": 8.04
  },
  "sma20": 362.69,
  "sma50": 342.43,
  "sma200": 260.89,
  "ema12": 359.27,
  "ema26": 356.81,
  "atr14": 14.15,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 9.34,
    "d": 22.4
  },
  "adx14": 31.41,
  "obv": 130835.64284026007
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "below_lower",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776197563140,
    "price": 347.45,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 28.99,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -4.81,
        "signal": -4.51,
        "histogram": -0.3
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 365.71,
        "middle": 354.4,
        "lower": 343.1,
        "width": 6.38
      },
      "sma20": 354.4,
      "sma50": 364.44,
      "sma200": 363.15,
      "ema12": 351.01,
      "ema26": 355.82,
      "atr14": 3.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 12.56,
        "d": 13.88
      },
      "adx14": 35.3,
      "obv": -10473.891737040001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776197563141,
    "price": 347.45,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 36.11,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -3.78,
        "signal": -1.22,
        "histogram": -2.56
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 379.62,
        "middle": 362.48,
        "lower": 345.34,
        "width": 9.46
      },
      "sma20": 362.48,
      "sma50": 362.74,
      "sma200": 340.83,
      "ema12": 357.01,
      "ema26": 360.79,
      "atr14": 6.94,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 4.49,
        "d": 4.22
      },
      "adx14": 17.2,
      "obv": 95760.85022090994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776197563141,
    "price": 347.45,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 2.45,
        "signal": 6.19,
        "histogram": -3.74
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 377.27,
        "middle": 362.69,
        "lower": 348.12,
        "width": 8.04
      },
      "sma20": 362.69,
      "sma50": 342.43,
      "sma200": 260.89,
      "ema12": 359.27,
      "ema26": 356.81,
      "atr14": 14.15,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 9.34,
        "d": 22.4
      },
      "adx14": 31.41,
      "obv": 130835.64284026007
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776197563142,
    "price": 347.45,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.74,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 35.02,
        "signal": 25.12,
        "histogram": 9.9
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 405.12,
        "middle": 282.62,
        "lower": 160.12,
        "width": 86.69
      },
      "sma20": 282.62,
      "sma50": 249.38,
      "sma200": 339.98,
      "ema12": 326.68,
      "ema26": 291.66,
      "atr14": 29.19,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 71.32,
        "d": 79.53
      },
      "adx14": 36.31,
      "obv": 2442123.531244226
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest114993798.92
Price347.45
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss342.43
Take profit357.49
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.44
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ZEC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score60.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence60.60
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 60.9.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0.70
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score32.40
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$347.45
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$115.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ZEC chart with overlay More thesesAll ZEC theses