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Thesis · thesis_mnz6lnpx_k1jv6r
ARB

ARB

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-14T22:17:12Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.55%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.55% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.1101
Entry high
$0.1104
Target 1
$0.1108
Target 2
$0.1111
Stop loss
$0.1098
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
42.4
Bearish
ADX 14
22.9
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1100
Lower 0.0900
inside
SMA stack
200.1000
500.1000
2000.1200
TA Workspace · ARB
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ARB · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.096040 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
222,222.2222 ARB
$24.50K
Leverage
2.45x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.087750
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.89
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.1108
+1.22R$122.22(+1.22%)
T2 hit @ 0.1111
+1.89R$188.89(+1.89%)
Stop hit @ 0.1098
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ARB on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 66.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.2, returned 9.20%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 91.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 42.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.1098, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ARB Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. ARB cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ARB
Price0.11
Timestamp1776204886221
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 49.04,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.12,
    "middle": 0.11,
    "lower": 0.11,
    "width": 6.61
  },
  "sma20": 0.11,
  "sma50": 0.11,
  "sma200": 0.1,
  "ema12": 0.11,
  "ema26": 0.11,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 22.61,
    "d": 19.13
  },
  "adx14": 42.46,
  "obv": -4126033.842529999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776204886219,
    "price": 0.11024,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 2.64
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.11,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 78.33,
        "d": 63.56
      },
      "adx14": 20.59,
      "obv": -318847.3223
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776204886220,
    "price": 0.11024,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 41.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.11,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 4.29
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.11,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.37,
        "d": 22.74
      },
      "adx14": 22.19,
      "obv": 1924912.90451
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776204886221,
    "price": 0.11024,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.04,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.11,
        "lower": 0.11,
        "width": 6.61
      },
      "sma20": 0.11,
      "sma50": 0.11,
      "sma200": 0.1,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.11,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 22.61,
        "d": 19.13
      },
      "adx14": 42.46,
      "obv": -4126033.842529999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ARB",
    "timestamp": 1776204886221,
    "price": 0.11024,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.58,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.12,
        "middle": 0.1,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 38.09
      },
      "sma20": 0.1,
      "sma50": 0.1,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.11,
      "ema26": 0.1,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.51,
        "d": 66.76
      },
      "adx14": 21.97,
      "obv": -69937844.81921002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest7686547.16
Price0.11
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.11
Take profit0.11
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ARB; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.2
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score91
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence80.40
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.2
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 91.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-10.90
Note
Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score39.80
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.1102
Funding rate
-0.0028%
Open interest
$7.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ARB chart with overlay More thesesAll ARB theses