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Thesis · thesis_mnzpxamh_ni1uql
HYPE

HYPE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-15T07:18:32Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.24%.

  • Closed +0.24% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$43.2148
Entry high
$43.5172
Target 1
$44.3034
Target 2
$44.878
Stop loss
$42.61
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
57.3
Bullish
ADX 14
31.7
Trending
ATR 14
2.81
3.89% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75.27
Lower 68.23
inside
SMA stack
2071.75
5066.33
20051.59
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $72.2590 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
132.2751 HYPE
$5.74K
Leverage
0.57x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 44.3034
+1.24R$123.99(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 44.878
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 42.61
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 118.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (latest asset) scored 18.4, returned 17.44%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 96.7.
  • Historical setup quality note: Historical edge is still warming up, so live structure should matter more than closed-history proof.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 41.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $42.6100, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. HYPE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price43.37
Timestamp1776237422262
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.93,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.89,
    "signal": 0.95,
    "histogram": -0.06
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.58,
    "middle": 42.61,
    "lower": 39.63,
    "width": 13.97
  },
  "sma20": 42.61,
  "sma50": 40.83,
  "sma200": 38.9,
  "ema12": 43.41,
  "ema26": 42.52,
  "atr14": 1.07,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 43.64,
    "d": 49.98
  },
  "adx14": 41.6,
  "obv": 897060.9089297601
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776237422261,
    "price": 43.366,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.62,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.1,
        "signal": -0.06,
        "histogram": -0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.28,
        "middle": 43.73,
        "lower": 43.17,
        "width": 2.52
      },
      "sma20": 43.73,
      "sma50": 43.63,
      "sma200": 43.58,
      "ema12": 43.55,
      "ema26": 43.66,
      "atr14": 0.19,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 14.82,
        "d": 23.76
      },
      "adx14": 19.67,
      "obv": 75007.85248492997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776237422262,
    "price": 43.366,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.06,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": -0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.62,
        "middle": 43.7,
        "lower": 42.78,
        "width": 4.21
      },
      "sma20": 43.7,
      "sma50": 43.62,
      "sma200": 40.83,
      "ema12": 43.67,
      "ema26": 43.73,
      "atr14": 0.47,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 35.2,
        "d": 36.5
      },
      "adx14": 18.94,
      "obv": 184949.38176282003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776237422262,
    "price": 43.366,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.93,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.89,
        "signal": 0.95,
        "histogram": -0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.58,
        "middle": 42.61,
        "lower": 39.63,
        "width": 13.97
      },
      "sma20": 42.61,
      "sma50": 40.83,
      "sma200": 38.9,
      "ema12": 43.41,
      "ema26": 42.52,
      "atr14": 1.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.64,
        "d": 49.98
      },
      "adx14": 41.6,
      "obv": 897060.9089297601
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776237422262,
    "price": 43.366,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.73,
        "signal": 1.18,
        "histogram": 0.55
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.5,
        "middle": 38.94,
        "lower": 33.37,
        "width": 28.6
      },
      "sma20": 38.94,
      "sma50": 36.71,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 41,
      "ema26": 39.27,
      "atr14": 2.4,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.86,
        "d": 76.1
      },
      "adx14": 27.01,
      "obv": -132858.51712783048
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest909928045.23
Price43.37
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss42.61
Take profit44.88
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.74
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: provisional_replay_supported at 24.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: no recent execution lesson changed this asset materially.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Admin test publish path
  • Latest-asset replay supports the direction
  • FredAI memory supports a controlled probe
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score96.70
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence89.30
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.4
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 96.7.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score33.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$43.366
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$909.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses