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Thesis · thesis_mnzq84ay_lz9n7f
ADA

ADA

 shortLOSS 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-15T07:27:00Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.52%.

  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.52% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2386
Entry high
$0.2391
Target 1
$0.2375
Target 2
$0.2367
Stop loss
$0.2400
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
37.8
Bearish
ADX 14
33.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.60% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2400
Lower 0.2100
inside
SMA stack
200.2300
500.2300
2000.2500
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · ADA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ADA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.215390 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
86,956.5217 ADA
$20.77K
Leverage
2.08x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.296350
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.87
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2375
+1.17R$117.39(+1.17%)
T2 hit @ 0.2367
+1.87R$186.96(+1.87%)
Stop hit @ 0.24
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ADA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 13.4, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 4h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Candidate quality is 131.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 32.1, returned 16.55%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is fully aligned. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating.

Final thesis
ADA Short: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is fully aligned. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating. ADA cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ADA
Price0.24
Timestamp1776237816154
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 40.72,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.25,
    "middle": 0.24,
    "lower": 0.23,
    "width": 4.97
  },
  "sma20": 0.24,
  "sma50": 0.25,
  "sma200": 0.26,
  "ema12": 0.24,
  "ema26": 0.24,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 20.72,
    "d": 26.95
  },
  "adx14": 13.36,
  "obv": 7169240.66670313
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1776237816151,
    "price": 0.23882434,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.27,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.24,
        "middle": 0.24,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 0.94
      },
      "sma20": 0.24,
      "sma50": 0.24,
      "sma200": 0.24,
      "ema12": 0.24,
      "ema26": 0.24,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 14.26,
        "d": 15.56
      },
      "adx14": 16.5,
      "obv": 519815.97397866944
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1776237816152,
    "price": 0.23882434,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.24,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 4.15
      },
      "sma20": 0.24,
      "sma50": 0.24,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.24,
      "ema26": 0.24,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.86,
        "d": 9.05
      },
      "adx14": 12.93,
      "obv": 7230181.048921182
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1776237816152,
    "price": 0.23882434,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.24,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 4.97
      },
      "sma20": 0.24,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.26,
      "ema12": 0.24,
      "ema26": 0.24,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20.72,
        "d": 26.95
      },
      "adx14": 13.36,
      "obv": 7169240.66670313
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1776237816154,
    "price": 0.23882434,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 10.12
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.26,
      "sma200": 0.41,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 13.05,
        "d": 24.86
      },
      "adx14": 13.23,
      "obv": -691956174.0700889
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest12373588.70
Price0.24
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.24
Take profit0.24
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.49
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • ADX 13.4 indicates weak trend.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ADA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab strongly supports letting AI command this setup.
  • Strategy lab: Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 32.1
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence95.10
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 32.1
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-0.30
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
elite
Score78.70
Note
Strategy lab strongly supports letting AI command this setup.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2388
Funding rate
-0.0016%
Open interest
$12.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
elite
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See ADA chart with overlay More thesesAll ADA theses