Thesis · thesis_mnzrgqiz_eovjl3

0G

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-15T08:01:42Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.01%

peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.74%.

Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
Max adverse excursion hit -0.74% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.5934

Entry high

$0.5952

Target 1

$0.5996

Target 2

$0.6029

Stop loss

$0.5900

0G · 1h candles · last 121

Entry / Target / Stop overlaid

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · oversoldVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

30.5

Bearish

ADX 14

24.5

Weak trend

ATR 14

0.0100

2.62% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.4300

Lower 0.3700

inside

SMA stack

200.4000

500.4200

2000.5000

TA Workspace · 0G

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

0G · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.381100 · max 3x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 3x)

Trade plan

Position size

23,255.814 0G

$13.82K

Leverage

1.38x

≤ 3x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

$0.379300

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.00

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.5996

+1.23R$123.26(+1.23%)

T2 hit @ 0.6029

+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)

Stop hit @ 0.59

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open 0G on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
Candidate quality is 119.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
DONCHIAN BREAKOUT replay (latest asset) scored 23.1, returned 16.45%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. SMA CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Bear case

ADX is near 49.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.5900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis

0G Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming. 0G cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

Price0.59

Timestamp1776239868197

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 54.15,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.65,
    "middle": 0.59,
    "lower": 0.54,
    "width": 18.17
  },
  "sma20": 0.59,
  "sma50": 0.55,
  "sma200": 0.53,
  "ema12": 0.6,
  "ema26": 0.58,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 22.05,
    "d": 26.55
  },
  "adx14": 48.96,
  "obv": 2493634.8764999993
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "0G",
    "timestamp": 1776239868195,
    "price": 0.59430066,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.62,
        "middle": 0.61,
        "lower": 0.6,
        "width": 3.51
      },
      "sma20": 0.61,
      "sma50": 0.61,
      "sma200": 0.6,
      "ema12": 0.6,
      "ema26": 0.61,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.56,
        "d": 0.85
      },
      "adx14": 14.97,
      "obv": 123114.09714000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "0G",
    "timestamp": 1776239868196,
    "price": 0.59430066,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.26,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.62,
        "middle": 0.6,
        "lower": 0.58,
        "width": 7.27
      },
      "sma20": 0.6,
      "sma50": 0.6,
      "sma200": 0.55,
      "ema12": 0.6,
      "ema26": 0.6,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 29.74,
        "d": 45.88
      },
      "adx14": 32.48,
      "obv": 1015404.6737000006
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "0G",
    "timestamp": 1776239868196,
    "price": 0.59430066,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.65,
        "middle": 0.59,
        "lower": 0.54,
        "width": 18.17
      },
      "sma20": 0.59,
      "sma50": 0.55,
      "sma200": 0.53,
      "ema12": 0.6,
      "ema26": 0.58,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 22.05,
        "d": 26.55
      },
      "adx14": 48.96,
      "obv": 2493634.8764999993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "0G",
    "timestamp": 1776239868196,
    "price": 0.59430066,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.62,
        "middle": 0.53,
        "lower": 0.44,
        "width": 33.83
      },
      "sma20": 0.53,
      "sma50": 0.56,
      "sma200": 1.06,
      "ema12": 0.56,
      "ema26": 0.55,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.43,
        "d": 36.4
      },
      "adx14": 31.87,
      "obv": 22118568.332700014
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate-0.00

Open Interest547078.47

Price0.59

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss0.59

Take profit0.60

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %0.72

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for 0G; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
replay remains supportive with score 23.1
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence91

Reasons

SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
replay remains supportive with score 23.1
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. SMA_CROSS is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score0.70

Note

Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.

Strategy commander brain

State

warming

Score45.40

Note

Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.5943

Funding rate

-0.0156%

Open interest

$0.5M

Macro regime

disinflation_range_bear_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_range_bear_lowvol

Replay strategy

DONCHIAN_BREAKOUT · latest_asset

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

warming

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See 0G chart with overlay More theses All 0G theses