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Thesis · thesis_mnzshoxc_bhfztg
SOL

SOL

 shortFLAT 1-3d

Generated 94d ago · 2026-04-15T08:29:57Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.20%.

  • Closed -0.20% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$82.927
Entry high
$83.093
Target 1
$82.514
Target 2
$82.21
Stop loss
$83.41
SOL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
83.9181.1478.3775.672.8275.457/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
46.6
Neutral
ADX 14
16.7
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.8500
1.13% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 77.25
Lower 73.96
inside
SMA stack
2075.60
5076.41
20075.14
PatternsBullish MarubozuDragonfly Doji
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $75.4460 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
250 SOL
$20.75K
Leverage
2.08x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$103.0100
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 82.514
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 82.21
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 83.41
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 25.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $83.4100, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Bear case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Candidate quality is 91.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.0, returned 7.93%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 84.6.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SOL Short: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming. SOL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Price83.01
Timestamp1776241653082
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 45.55,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.14,
    "signal": 0.32,
    "histogram": -0.18
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 86.8,
    "middle": 83.5,
    "lower": 80.2,
    "width": 7.9
  },
  "sma20": 83.5,
  "sma50": 83.41,
  "sma200": 85.6,
  "ema12": 83.89,
  "ema26": 83.75,
  "atr14": 1.3,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 23.34,
    "d": 26.96
  },
  "adx14": 25.01,
  "obv": -693596.6266846295
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji",
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776241653079,
    "price": 83.01,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 40.11,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.21,
        "signal": -0.21,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 83.72,
        "middle": 83.21,
        "lower": 82.69,
        "width": 1.24
      },
      "sma20": 83.21,
      "sma50": 83.52,
      "sma200": 84.33,
      "ema12": 83.06,
      "ema26": 83.27,
      "atr14": 0.25,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.44,
        "d": 24.46
      },
      "adx14": 28.01,
      "obv": 3767.363418809949
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776241653080,
    "price": 83.01,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.19,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.5,
        "signal": -0.35,
        "histogram": -0.15
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.46,
        "middle": 84.15,
        "lower": 81.85,
        "width": 5.47
      },
      "sma20": 84.15,
      "sma50": 84.35,
      "sma200": 83.35,
      "ema12": 83.53,
      "ema26": 84.03,
      "atr14": 0.63,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 18.56,
        "d": 11.71
      },
      "adx14": 23.99,
      "obv": 36252.62895532996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776241653081,
    "price": 83.01,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.14,
        "signal": 0.32,
        "histogram": -0.18
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.8,
        "middle": 83.5,
        "lower": 80.2,
        "width": 7.9
      },
      "sma20": 83.5,
      "sma50": 83.41,
      "sma200": 85.6,
      "ema12": 83.89,
      "ema26": 83.75,
      "atr14": 1.3,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 23.34,
        "d": 26.96
      },
      "adx14": 25.01,
      "obv": -693596.6266846295
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776241653082,
    "price": 83.01,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.68,
        "signal": -1.06,
        "histogram": 0.38
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 86.35,
        "middle": 82.57,
        "lower": 78.79,
        "width": 9.15
      },
      "sma20": 82.57,
      "sma50": 85.69,
      "sma200": 128.81,
      "ema12": 83.6,
      "ema26": 84.28,
      "atr14": 4.11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 57.16,
        "d": 72.25
      },
      "adx14": 10.46,
      "obv": -7342793.062555671
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest280270310.22
Price83.01
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss83.41
Take profit82.21
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.48
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score84.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence74.30
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 10.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 84.6.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.50
Note
Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score51.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$83.01
Funding rate
-0.0110%
Open interest
$280.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses