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Thesis · thesis_mnzuh34h_8t9361
DOGE

DOGE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-15T09:25:29Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.13%.

  • Closed +0.13% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0925
Entry high
$0.0936
Target 1
$0.0968
Target 2
$0.0992
Stop loss
$0.0900
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.7
Bearish
ADX 14
36.7
Trending
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1000
Lower 0.0900
inside
SMA stack
200.1000
500.1000
2000.1100
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · DOGE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

DOGE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.093970 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
32,786.8852 DOGE
$3.05K
Leverage
0.31x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.02
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0968
+1.23R$122.95(+1.23%)
T2 hit @ 0.0992
+2.02R$201.64(+2.02%)
Stop hit @ 0.09
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open DOGE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 112.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 15.7, returned 8.54%, win rate 75.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 45.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 29.6, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
DOGE Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. DOGE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
DOGE
Price0.09
Timestamp1776244966783
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.28,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.1,
    "middle": 0.09,
    "lower": 0.09,
    "width": 5.87
  },
  "sma20": 0.09,
  "sma50": 0.09,
  "sma200": 0.09,
  "ema12": 0.09,
  "ema26": 0.09,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 32.45,
    "d": 32.24
  },
  "adx14": 29.62,
  "obv": -6082049.036330425
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "DOGE",
    "timestamp": 1776244966781,
    "price": 0.09305,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.11,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.09,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 1.09
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 42.58,
        "d": 45.2
      },
      "adx14": 11.7,
      "obv": 12900713.501890516
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu",
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "DOGE",
    "timestamp": 1776244966782,
    "price": 0.09305,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.66,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 4.08
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 40.28,
        "d": 34.76
      },
      "adx14": 22.07,
      "obv": -8949704.23407907
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "DOGE",
    "timestamp": 1776244966782,
    "price": 0.09305,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.28,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 5.87
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.09,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 32.45,
        "d": 32.24
      },
      "adx14": 29.62,
      "obv": -6082049.036330425
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "DOGE",
    "timestamp": 1776244966783,
    "price": 0.09305,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.09,
        "middle": 0.09,
        "lower": 0.09,
        "width": 5.79
      },
      "sma20": 0.09,
      "sma50": 0.09,
      "sma200": 0.14,
      "ema12": 0.09,
      "ema26": 0.09,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 45.14,
        "d": 54.43
      },
      "adx14": 12.3,
      "obv": -2875971605.0658197
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji",
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest105005968.36
Price0.09
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.36
Leverage2
Stop loss0.09
Take profit0.10
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.28
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for DOGE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked DOGE mostly because: Scheduler fast path could not build deterministic risk assessment.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.7
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score45.50
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence37.50
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 15.7
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is marked avoid in current memory. Policy confidence 45.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked DOGE mostly because: Scheduler fast path could not build deterministic risk assessment.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score35
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0931
Funding rate
0.0001%
Open interest
$105.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See DOGE chart with overlay More thesesAll DOGE theses