Generated 49d ago · 2026-04-15T12:35:20Z · expires 2026-04-18
Thesis expired flat — closed +0.96%.
- Closed +0.96% at conviction 65/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.
Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.
Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".
- Macro disinflation regime (score 33) provides constructive backdrop for trend-following longs
- RSI_PULLBACK strategy shows exact regime match with 100% win rate (11.49% return) across 3 replay trades
- MACD histogram positive (1.51) and above signal line supports near-term bullish momentum
- Technical trend remains bearish per composite signals (bear score 7/10)
- Bull analyst notes case is thin and lacks strong structural confirmation
- Stochastic K=0 indicates oversold conditions but D=41.97 shows no confirmed bullish cross yet
See the bull vs bear showdown
Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.
- Market Scout: Scans the universe, ranks candidates, and frames the live market regime before the desk debates a trade.
- Technical Analyst: Reads trend, momentum, structure, and timeframe alignment from the live TA stack.
- Bull Analyst: Builds the strongest possible long thesis from the data without hiding the trade-offs.
- Bear Analyst: Builds the strongest possible short or caution case so the desk does not confuse momentum with edge.
- Risk Officer: Challenges trade quality, invalidation, and position discipline before capital is committed.
- FredAI Policy: Applies replay memory, failure history, and regime policy so the desk learns instead of repeating old mistakes.
- CIO / ThesisAI: Makes the final publish-or-block call and turns the desk verdict into a clean execution thesis.
The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.
Enter long ETH in $2270-$2290 range on pullback to middle Bollinger Band support. Target 1: $2430 (upper band), Target 2: $2500 (aggressive extension). Stop loss at $2240, below technical invalidation. Setup relies on bullish macro backdrop and replay evidence, but requires tight risk management due to bearish trend signals.
Desk decision packet
ETH desk packet: LONG bias, 1-3d horizon. ETH shows bearish trend and neutral momentum across the live TA stack. Risk is conditionally cleared with a low rating. Model risk fallback used after: The operation was aborted due to timeout
Bull vs bear conflict: The bull case is still thin and needs stronger structure before the desk should press the long side. / The bear case is still thin and mostly serves as tactical caution rather than a dominant counter-view.
Sentiment analyst memo
- Bullish macro regime with disinflation supporting trend-following longs
- Funding rate is low positive (0.000045%), not meeting significance threshold of 0.03%
- Missing data on Fear & Greed, Open Interest changes, and social signals restricts comprehensive analysis
Risk officer memo
- Model risk fallback used after: The operation was aborted due to timeout
Directional decision
Calibrated debate
- Desk prior reinforced long by 4.0.
- FredAI policy promoted the long case.
- Historical lane quality forces a more cautious debate balance.
- Multi-timeframe TA is aligned on the long side.
- Trend structure supports the bear case.
- Exact-regime replay supports the long case.
FredAI policy
- RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
- overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
- exact-regime replay is available
- replay remains supportive with score 19.0