Thesis · thesis_mo01o1er_juwt67

TIA

longWIN 1-3d

Generated 48d ago · 2026-04-15T12:46:46Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

+0.09%

peak +0.09% · MAE -0.01%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +9.41%.

High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
Captured most of the move — exit near the +9.41% peak with minimal giveback.
Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.3181

Entry high

$0.3219

Target 1

$0.3386

Target 2

$0.3500

Stop loss

$0.3050

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · none

RSI 14

42.2

Bearish

ADX 14

27.1

Trending

ATR 14

0.0200

5.33% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.4100

Lower 0.3600

inside

SMA stack

200.3900

500.4100

2000.4100

TA Workspace · TIA

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

TIA · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.382050 · max 5x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 5x)

Trade plan

Position size

6,666.6667 TIA

$2.13K

Leverage

0.21x

≤ 5x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.00

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.3386

+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)

T2 hit @ 0.35

+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)

Stop hit @ 0.305

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open TIA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

1h ADX confirms trend strength.
4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
Candidate quality is 83.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 27.0, returned 19.80%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 86.7.

Bear case

ADX is near 26.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.3050, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

TIA Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. TIA cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

TIA

Price0.32

Timestamp1776257036163

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 65.64,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.32,
    "middle": 0.3,
    "lower": 0.29,
    "width": 11.86
  },
  "sma20": 0.3,
  "sma50": 0.3,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.31,
  "ema26": 0.31,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 97.23,
    "d": 86.5
  },
  "adx14": 26.15,
  "obv": 319595.1444299998
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776257036160,
    "price": 0.32,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 76.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.32,
        "middle": 0.31,
        "lower": 0.31,
        "width": 4.56
      },
      "sma20": 0.31,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.31,
      "ema12": 0.32,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 91.89,
        "d": 88.96
      },
      "adx14": 43.56,
      "obv": 83847.65585000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776257036161,
    "price": 0.32,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.11,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.32,
        "middle": 0.31,
        "lower": 0.3,
        "width": 5.68
      },
      "sma20": 0.31,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.31,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.9,
        "d": 89.93
      },
      "adx14": 32.18,
      "obv": 265665.55994999985
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776257036162,
    "price": 0.32,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.64,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.32,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 11.86
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.3,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.31,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 97.23,
        "d": 86.5
      },
      "adx14": 26.15,
      "obv": 319595.1444299998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "TIA",
    "timestamp": 1776257036163,
    "price": 0.32,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.3,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.32,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.28,
        "width": 13.21
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.6,
      "ema12": 0.31,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 98.05,
        "d": 90.07
      },
      "adx14": 11.42,
      "obv": -25015701.092299998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest1859102.84

Price0.32

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

medium

Max position %2.66

Leverage2

Stop loss0.30

Take profit0.35

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %4.69

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for TIA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
replay remains supportive with score 27.0
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score86.70

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence83

Reasons

RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
replay remains supportive with score 27.0
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 86.7.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-3.50

Note

Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score40.70

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.32

Funding rate

0.0040%

Open interest

$1.9M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

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