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Thesis · thesis_mo04l0lm_x6gkyl
ZEC

ZEC

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 94d ago · 2026-04-15T14:08:25Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.19%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.19% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$356.6324
Entry high
$359.6886
Target 1
$367.6347
Target 2
$373.4415
Stop loss
$350.52
ZEC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
601.74535.95470.15404.35338.56556.47/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
57.2
Bullish
ADX 14
22.8
Weak trend
ATR 14
14.46
2.60% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 574.76
Lower 525.23
inside
SMA stack
20550.00
50533.78
200467.11
TA Workspace · ZEC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ZEC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $557.4300 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
13.0881 ZEC
$4.69K
Leverage
0.47x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 367.6347
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 373.4415
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 350.52
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ZEC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • Candidate quality is 116.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 29.1, returned 19.51%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 94.6.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 27.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $350.5200, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ZEC Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. ZEC cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ZEC
Price358.16
Timestamp1776261942164
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 51.04,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 1.32,
    "signal": 3.52,
    "histogram": -2.21
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 373.14,
    "middle": 360.62,
    "lower": 348.1,
    "width": 6.94
  },
  "sma20": 360.62,
  "sma50": 350.52,
  "sma200": 263.83,
  "ema12": 358.28,
  "ema26": 356.96,
  "atr14": 13.05,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 34.53,
    "d": 29.08
  },
  "adx14": 26.97,
  "obv": 132495.13449392002
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776261942162,
    "price": 358.1605112,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.47,
        "signal": 0.58,
        "histogram": -0.11
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 360.58,
        "middle": 358.03,
        "lower": 355.49,
        "width": 1.42
      },
      "sma20": 358.03,
      "sma50": 356.01,
      "sma200": 360.29,
      "ema12": 357.75,
      "ema26": 357.28,
      "atr14": 2.21,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 31.36,
        "d": 26.13
      },
      "adx14": 20.43,
      "obv": -5804.014061509998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776261942163,
    "price": 358.1605112,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.49,
        "signal": -1.24,
        "histogram": 0.76
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 362.3,
        "middle": 355.36,
        "lower": 348.42,
        "width": 3.91
      },
      "sma20": 355.36,
      "sma50": 360.07,
      "sma200": 349.86,
      "ema12": 357.23,
      "ema26": 357.72,
      "atr14": 5.11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 61.04,
        "d": 59.11
      },
      "adx14": 12.75,
      "obv": 100606.07924471996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776261942163,
    "price": 358.1605112,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.04,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.32,
        "signal": 3.52,
        "histogram": -2.21
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 373.14,
        "middle": 360.62,
        "lower": 348.1,
        "width": 6.94
      },
      "sma20": 360.62,
      "sma50": 350.52,
      "sma200": 263.83,
      "ema12": 358.28,
      "ema26": 356.96,
      "atr14": 13.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 34.53,
        "d": 29.08
      },
      "adx14": 26.97,
      "obv": 132495.13449392002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776261942164,
    "price": 358.1605112,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 35.35,
        "signal": 27.25,
        "histogram": 8.1
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 413.83,
        "middle": 289.75,
        "lower": 165.67,
        "width": 85.65
      },
      "sma20": 289.75,
      "sma50": 251.82,
      "sma200": 341.52,
      "ema12": 332.39,
      "ema26": 297.04,
      "atr14": 28.08,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.88,
        "d": 79.44
      },
      "adx14": 37.37,
      "obv": 2433579.5696787364
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest110061648.09
Price358.16
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.93
Leverage3
Stop loss350.52
Take profit373.44
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.13
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ZEC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score94.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence84.60
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 29.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 94.6.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.40
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score40.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$358.1605
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$110.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ZEC chart with overlay More thesesAll ZEC theses