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Thesis · thesis_mo09eu61_ihdyac
INJ

INJ

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 94d ago · 2026-04-15T16:23:31Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.05%
peak +0.05% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +5.18%.

  • High conviction (68/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +5.18% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.111
Entry high
$3.141
Target 1
$3.219
Target 2
$3.276
Stop loss
$3.051
INJ · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
5.33754.73864.13983.5412.94215.13547/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
56.7
Bullish
ADX 14
23.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.1100
2.14% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 5.25
Lower 4.86
inside
SMA stack
205.05
504.98
2004.87
PatternsBearish Marubozu
TA Workspace · INJ
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

INJ · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $5.1354 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
1,333.3333 INJ
$4.17K
Leverage
0.42x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 3.219
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 3.276
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 3.051
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open INJ on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 108.1 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 19.0, returned 9.01%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.6.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 27.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $3.0510, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating.

Final thesis
INJ Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating. INJ cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
INJ
Price3.13
Timestamp1776270057162
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 67.63,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.03,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 3.12,
    "middle": 2.98,
    "lower": 2.85,
    "width": 8.78
  },
  "sma20": 2.98,
  "sma50": 2.98,
  "sma200": 2.97,
  "ema12": 3.03,
  "ema26": 3,
  "atr14": 0.05,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 100,
    "d": 91.35
  },
  "adx14": 27.52,
  "obv": -76607.69382237003
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776270057161,
    "price": 3.126,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.4,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.11,
        "middle": 3.07,
        "lower": 3.03,
        "width": 2.56
      },
      "sma20": 3.07,
      "sma50": 3.03,
      "sma200": 3.01,
      "ema12": 3.08,
      "ema26": 3.06,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 53.23
      },
      "adx14": 34.6,
      "obv": -27263.486066619997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776270057161,
    "price": 3.126,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.11,
        "middle": 3.02,
        "lower": 2.94,
        "width": 5.48
      },
      "sma20": 3.02,
      "sma50": 3.01,
      "sma200": 2.97,
      "ema12": 3.06,
      "ema26": 3.03,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 84.78
      },
      "adx14": 35.08,
      "obv": -147954.61368907
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776270057162,
    "price": 3.126,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.63,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.12,
        "middle": 2.98,
        "lower": 2.85,
        "width": 8.78
      },
      "sma20": 2.98,
      "sma50": 2.98,
      "sma200": 2.97,
      "ema12": 3.03,
      "ema26": 3,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 91.35
      },
      "adx14": 27.52,
      "obv": -76607.69382237003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776270057162,
    "price": 3.126,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.87,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": -0.02,
        "histogram": 0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.11,
        "middle": 2.9,
        "lower": 2.7,
        "width": 14.31
      },
      "sma20": 2.9,
      "sma50": 2.99,
      "sma200": 5.37,
      "ema12": 2.98,
      "ema26": 2.97,
      "atr14": 0.14,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 87.83
      },
      "adx14": 9.67,
      "obv": -2354424.9871923765
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1651874.41
Price3.13
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.80
Leverage3
Stop loss3.05
Take profit3.28
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for INJ; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score98.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence89.90
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 19.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.6.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score1.30
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score62.10
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.126
Funding rate
0.0008%
Open interest
$1.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See INJ chart with overlay More thesesAll INJ theses