Thesis · thesis_mo0b6cx9_4afdix

LDO

longWIN 1-3d

Generated 48d ago · 2026-04-15T17:12:56Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

+0.08%

peak +0.08% · MAE -0.01%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +8.04%.

High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
Captured most of the move — exit near the +8.04% peak with minimal giveback.
Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.3731

Entry high

$0.3777

Target 1

$0.3940

Target 2

$0.4054

Stop loss

$0.3604

LDO · 1h candles · last 121

Entry / Target / Stop overlaid

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross

RSI 14

44.1

Bearish

ADX 14

20.8

Weak trend

ATR 14

0.0100

3.20% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.3400

Lower 0.3000

inside

SMA stack

200.3200

500.3200

2000.3600

PatternsDoji

TA Workspace · LDO

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LDO · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.311610 · max 5x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 5x)

Trade plan

Position size

6,666.6667 LDO

$2.50K

Leverage

0.25x

≤ 5x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.00

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.394

+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)

T2 hit @ 0.4054

+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)

Stop hit @ 0.3604

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open LDO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
1d ADX confirms trend strength.
Candidate quality is 103.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 21.3, returned 17.38%, win rate 54.5%.
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.

Bear case

ADX is near 31.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.3604, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis

LDO Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. LDO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

LDO

Price0.38

Timestamp1776273011150

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 68.9,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.39,
    "middle": 0.34,
    "lower": 0.29,
    "width": 28.13
  },
  "sma20": 0.34,
  "sma50": 0.33,
  "sma200": 0.31,
  "ema12": 0.36,
  "ema26": 0.34,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 85.85,
    "d": 85.53
  },
  "adx14": 31.95,
  "obv": 1149267.8433877898
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776273011149,
    "price": 0.37539962,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.3,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.36,
        "width": 6.1
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 44.76,
        "d": 37.14
      },
      "adx14": 46.69,
      "obv": -56530.21483445998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776273011149,
    "price": 0.37539962,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.46,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.38,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 11.66
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.37,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 70.26,
        "d": 71.28
      },
      "adx14": 38.19,
      "obv": -120792.85332743994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776273011150,
    "price": 0.37539962,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.9,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.39,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 28.13
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.33,
      "sma200": 0.31,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.34,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 85.85,
        "d": 85.53
      },
      "adx14": 31.95,
      "obv": 1149267.8433877898
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776273011150,
    "price": 0.37539962,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.77,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.32,
        "lower": 0.29,
        "width": 23.23
      },
      "sma20": 0.32,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.58,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.02,
        "d": 66.83
      },
      "adx14": 26,
      "obv": -16491570.475863025
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest7290242.24

Price0.38

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

medium

Max position %3

Leverage2

Stop loss0.36

Take profit0.41

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %4

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for LDO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy lab B is constructive
MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 21.3
warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence86.50

Reasons

MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 21.3
warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-7.80

Note

Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.

Strategy commander brain

State

warming

Score50.40

Note

Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.

Strategy lab brain

State

constructive

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.3754

Funding rate

0.0096%

Open interest

$7.3M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol

Replay strategy

MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

warming

Strategy lab

constructive

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See LDO chart with overlay More theses All LDO theses