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Thesis · thesis_mo0bhkb2_si4pjh
HYPE

HYPE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 94d ago · 2026-04-15T17:21:42Z · expires 2026-04-17

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.49%.

  • Closed -1.49% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$44.0656
Entry high
$44.5234
Target 1
$45.7136
Target 2
$46.5834
Stop loss
$43.15
HYPE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
70.2763.1756.0648.9641.8660.087/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
38.6
Bearish
ADX 14
35.8
Trending
ATR 14
1.32
2.20% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 67.82
Lower 55.87
inside
SMA stack
2061.84
5064.44
20066.51
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $60.0970 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
87.3744 HYPE
$3.87K
Leverage
0.39x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 45.7136
+1.24R$123.99(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 46.5834
+2.00R$199.99(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 43.15
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 71.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 14.15%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 68.1.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 42.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $43.1500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. HYPE cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price44.29
Timestamp1776273531226
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 60.8,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.89,
    "signal": 0.92,
    "histogram": -0.03
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.89,
    "middle": 43.15,
    "lower": 40.41,
    "width": 12.7
  },
  "sma20": 43.15,
  "sma50": 41.31,
  "sma200": 39,
  "ema12": 43.8,
  "ema26": 42.91,
  "atr14": 1.18,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 53.32,
    "d": 57.68
  },
  "adx14": 42.93,
  "obv": 1079024.0908118896
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776273531225,
    "price": 44.29445813,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.38,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.14,
        "signal": 0.25,
        "histogram": -0.1
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.66,
        "middle": 44.73,
        "lower": 43.79,
        "width": 4.19
      },
      "sma20": 44.73,
      "sma50": 44.09,
      "sma200": 44.07,
      "ema12": 44.69,
      "ema26": 44.55,
      "atr14": 0.5,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 9.98,
        "d": 15.53
      },
      "adx14": 39.62,
      "obv": 81003.00930219995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776273531226,
    "price": 44.29445813,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.59,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.23,
        "signal": 0.15,
        "histogram": 0.08
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.15,
        "middle": 44.03,
        "lower": 42.9,
        "width": 5.11
      },
      "sma20": 44.03,
      "sma50": 44.1,
      "sma200": 41.23,
      "ema12": 44.31,
      "ema26": 44.09,
      "atr14": 0.69,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 32.61,
        "d": 38.27
      },
      "adx14": 26.95,
      "obv": 185504.63033609
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776273531226,
    "price": 44.29445813,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.8,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.89,
        "signal": 0.92,
        "histogram": -0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.89,
        "middle": 43.15,
        "lower": 40.41,
        "width": 12.7
      },
      "sma20": 43.15,
      "sma50": 41.31,
      "sma200": 39,
      "ema12": 43.8,
      "ema26": 42.91,
      "atr14": 1.18,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 53.32,
        "d": 57.68
      },
      "adx14": 42.93,
      "obv": 1079024.0908118896
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776273531226,
    "price": 44.29445813,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 67.16,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.8,
        "signal": 1.2,
        "histogram": 0.6
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.71,
        "middle": 38.98,
        "lower": 33.26,
        "width": 29.38
      },
      "sma20": 38.98,
      "sma50": 36.73,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 41.14,
      "ema26": 39.34,
      "atr14": 2.56,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.46,
        "d": 78.64
      },
      "adx14": 27.37,
      "obv": 84105.97854472953
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest930008961.82
Price44.29
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.71
Leverage2
Stop loss43.15
Take profit46.58
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.58
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score68.10
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence65
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 68.1.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.80
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score30.80
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$44.2945
Funding rate
-0.0004%
Open interest
$930.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses