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Thesis · thesis_mo0hfn3e_osud0j
FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 48d ago · 2026-04-15T20:08:08Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.05%
peak +0.05% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +5.19%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +5.19% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2042
Entry high
$0.2063
Target 1
$0.2110
Target 2
$0.2146
Stop loss
$0.2000
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
43.8
Bearish
ADX 14
45.0
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.0100
6.80% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1700
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1600
2000.2000
TA Workspace · FARTCOIN
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FARTCOIN · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.146120 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
19,047.619 FARTCOIN
$3.91K
Leverage
0.39x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.78
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.211
+1.10R$109.52(+1.10%)
T2 hit @ 0.2146
+1.78R$178.10(+1.78%)
Stop hit @ 0.2
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FARTCOIN on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 127.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 25.3, returned 11.88%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is only near 23.8, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane.

Final thesis
FARTCOIN Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane. FARTCOIN cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FARTCOIN
Price0.21
Timestamp1776283523160
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 56.63,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.22,
    "middle": 0.2,
    "lower": 0.18,
    "width": 20.29
  },
  "sma20": 0.2,
  "sma50": 0.19,
  "sma200": 0.18,
  "ema12": 0.2,
  "ema26": 0.2,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 63.31,
    "d": 59.59
  },
  "adx14": 23.79,
  "obv": 4170986.379840004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776283523159,
    "price": 0.20521006,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.21,
        "middle": 0.2,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 3.6
      },
      "sma20": 0.2,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.2,
        "d": 78.45
      },
      "adx14": 22.38,
      "obv": -427575.4873499974
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776283523159,
    "price": 0.20521006,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.63,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.21,
        "middle": 0.2,
        "lower": 0.19,
        "width": 8.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.2,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 89.88,
        "d": 83.98
      },
      "adx14": 23.13,
      "obv": -6499763.835309998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776283523160,
    "price": 0.20521006,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.63,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.2,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 20.29
      },
      "sma20": 0.2,
      "sma50": 0.19,
      "sma200": 0.18,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 63.31,
        "d": 59.59
      },
      "adx14": 23.79,
      "obv": 4170986.379840004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776283523160,
    "price": 0.20521006,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.21,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.21,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 34.11
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.17,
      "sma200": 0.29,
      "ema12": 0.19,
      "ema26": 0.18,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 51.8,
        "d": 45.77
      },
      "adx14": 28.12,
      "obv": -212097381.56881005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest50377469.59
Price0.21
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.73
Leverage2
Stop loss0.20
Take profit0.21
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %2.54
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FARTCOIN; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 25.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence86.90
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 25.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-7.80
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score71.40
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2052
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$50.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_normalvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See FARTCOIN chart with overlay More thesesAll FARTCOIN theses