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Thesis · thesis_mo0ykw5c_hgus2e
ADA

ADA

 shortLOSS 1-3d

Generated 48d ago · 2026-04-16T04:08:08Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -0.66%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -0.66% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2488
Entry high
$0.2493
Target 1
$0.2479
Target 2
$0.2472
Stop loss
$0.2500
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.0
Bearish
ADX 14
34.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.0100
4.64% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2400
Lower 0.2100
inside
SMA stack
200.2300
500.2300
2000.2500
TA Workspace · ADA
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ADA · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.215390 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
105,263.1579 ADA
$26.22K
Leverage
2.62x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.296550
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.95
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2479
+1.21R$121.05(+1.21%)
T2 hit @ 0.2472
+1.95R$194.74(+1.95%)
Stop hit @ 0.25
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ADA on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 16.5, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Bear case
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 4h structure leans heavy.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 129.3 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 35.0, returned 16.77%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane.

Final thesis
ADA Short: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are penalizing this lane. ADA cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ADA
Price0.25
Timestamp1776312308152
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 57.5,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.25,
    "middle": 0.24,
    "lower": 0.24,
    "width": 6.27
  },
  "sma20": 0.24,
  "sma50": 0.25,
  "sma200": 0.25,
  "ema12": 0.24,
  "ema26": 0.24,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 88.75,
    "d": 80.59
  },
  "adx14": 16.49,
  "obv": 21738228.98941393
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "neutral",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1776312308151,
    "price": 0.24904151,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 2.61
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.24,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.87,
        "d": 85.35
      },
      "adx14": 32.04,
      "obv": -1203528.2159902893
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1776312308151,
    "price": 0.24904151,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.69,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 4.9
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.24,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.3,
        "d": 84.86
      },
      "adx14": 28.84,
      "obv": 2996853.525058192
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1776312308152,
    "price": 0.24904151,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.5,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.25,
        "middle": 0.24,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 6.27
      },
      "sma20": 0.24,
      "sma50": 0.25,
      "sma200": 0.25,
      "ema12": 0.24,
      "ema26": 0.24,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 88.75,
        "d": 80.59
      },
      "adx14": 16.49,
      "obv": 21738228.98941393
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ADA",
    "timestamp": 1776312308152,
    "price": 0.24904151,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.26,
        "middle": 0.25,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 9.73
      },
      "sma20": 0.25,
      "sma50": 0.26,
      "sma200": 0.41,
      "ema12": 0.25,
      "ema26": 0.25,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 44.21,
        "d": 31.78
      },
      "adx14": 13.47,
      "obv": -669019901.9703368
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest13082376.52
Price0.25
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.25
Take profit0.25
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ADA; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
  • Live learning: Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence100
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 35.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.10
Note
Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score75.20
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.249
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$13.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
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