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Thesis · thesis_mo14oem0_yb44zf
STBL

STBL

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 48d ago · 2026-04-16T06:59:21Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.05% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.99%.

  • Closed +0.99% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0410
Entry high
$0.0415
Target 1
$0.0428
Target 2
$0.0437
Stop loss
$0.0400
STBL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.04440.04070.0370.03340.02970.03185/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
47.0
Neutral
ADX 14
16.0
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0400
Lower 0.0300
inside
SMA stack
200.0300
500.0300
2000.0300
TA Workspace · STBL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

STBL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.031793 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
80,000 STBL
$3.30K
Leverage
0.33x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.96
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0428
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.0437
+1.96R$196.00(+1.96%)
Stop hit @ 0.04
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open STBL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 134.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 16.49%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 33.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Validated strategy evidence supports the setup. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
STBL Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Validated strategy evidence supports the setup. Strategy command is still warming. STBL cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
STBL
Price0.04
Timestamp1776322562243
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 60.78,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.04,
    "middle": 0.04,
    "lower": 0.03,
    "width": 25.39
  },
  "sma20": 0.04,
  "sma50": 0.04,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.04,
  "ema26": 0.04,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 76.5,
    "d": 72.56
  },
  "adx14": 33.69,
  "obv": 7687746.392060003
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "STBL",
    "timestamp": 1776322562242,
    "price": 0.0412293,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 2.97
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 99.5,
        "d": 77.58
      },
      "adx14": 12.68,
      "obv": 2653081.0400799983
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "STBL",
    "timestamp": 1776322562242,
    "price": 0.0412293,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.92,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 15.87
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50.6,
        "d": 57.48
      },
      "adx14": 27.45,
      "obv": 8113398.559969997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "STBL",
    "timestamp": 1776322562242,
    "price": 0.0412293,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.78,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 25.39
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.5,
        "d": 72.56
      },
      "adx14": 33.69,
      "obv": 7687746.392060003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "STBL",
    "timestamp": 1776322562243,
    "price": 0.0412293,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 35.29
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.07,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.62,
        "d": 85.46
      },
      "adx14": 19.03,
      "obv": 88414511.66106996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest5554685.22
Price0.04
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.51
Leverage2
Stop loss0.04
Take profit0.04
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.98
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for STBL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution still needs more reset time before the desk fully trusts it again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence92.90
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution still needs more reset time before the desk fully trusts it again.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score59.10
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0412
Funding rate
0.0101%
Open interest
$5.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See STBL chart with overlay More thesesAll STBL theses