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Thesis · thesis_mo14s5fs_4d4hva
PNUT

PNUT

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 48d ago · 2026-04-16T07:02:16Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.34%.

  • Closed -1.34% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0547
Entry high
$0.0554
Target 1
$0.0597
Target 2
$0.0625
Stop loss
$0.0513
PNUT · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.06330.05890.05440.050.04550.04845/29 05:005/30 11:005/31 17:006/1 23:006/3 05:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
48.9
Neutral
ADX 14
17.3
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0600
Lower 0.0500
inside
SMA stack
200.0500
500.0500
2000.0600
TA Workspace · PNUT
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PNUT · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.050820 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
26,666.6667 PNUT
$1.47K
Leverage
0.15x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.99
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0597
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.0625
+1.99R$198.67(+1.99%)
Stop hit @ 0.0513
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PNUT on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 114.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 21.3, returned 13.66%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 41.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0513, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
PNUT Long: selective command with guarded risk

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. PNUT cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PNUT
Price0.06
Timestamp1776322743183
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 83.24,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.05,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 35.92
  },
  "sma20": 0.05,
  "sma50": 0.04,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.05,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 80.47,
    "d": 85.12
  },
  "adx14": 41.68,
  "obv": 1253943.7659199992
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776322743182,
    "price": 0.05504837,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.06,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 6.71
      },
      "sma20": 0.06,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 31.04,
        "d": 29.26
      },
      "adx14": 32.52,
      "obv": 1495558.24095
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776322743182,
    "price": 0.05504837,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 72.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 31.49
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 74.99,
        "d": 79.4
      },
      "adx14": 60.53,
      "obv": 2173369.00895
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776322743183,
    "price": 0.05504837,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 83.24,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 35.92
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.47,
        "d": 85.12
      },
      "adx14": 41.68,
      "obv": 1253943.7659199992
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776322743183,
    "price": 0.05504837,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.48,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 39.27
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.08,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.83,
        "d": 82.63
      },
      "adx14": 15.45,
      "obv": -89858721.96468998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest485721.95
Price0.06
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.05
Take profit0.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.81
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 83.2 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PNUT; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Desk recently blocked PNUT mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Desk recently blocked PNUT mostly because: Risk manager rejected the setup (high).
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.055
Funding rate
0.0012%
Open interest
$0.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PNUT chart with overlay More thesesAll PNUT theses