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Thesis · thesis_mo1c2u31_g8oiee
PNUT

PNUT

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 93d ago · 2026-04-16T10:26:25Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.19%.

  • Closed -0.19% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0526
Entry high
$0.0532
Target 1
$0.0565
Target 2
$0.0588
Stop loss
$0.0500
PNUT · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.05970.05470.04960.04460.03960.04117/13 20:007/15 02:007/16 08:007/17 14:007/18 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · death cross
RSI 14
36.4
Bearish
ADX 14
28.5
Trending
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0400
Lower 0.0400
inside
SMA stack
200.0400
500.0400
2000.0400
PatternsBearish Marubozu
TA Workspace · PNUT
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PNUT · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.041040 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
34,482.7586 PNUT
$1.82K
Leverage
0.18x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.03
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0565
+1.24R$124.14(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.0588
+2.03R$203.45(+2.03%)
Stop hit @ 0.05
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PNUT on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 112.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 21.3, returned 13.66%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 43.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
PNUT Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. PNUT cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PNUT
Price0.05
Timestamp1776335001158
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 74.2,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.05,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 36.41
  },
  "sma20": 0.05,
  "sma50": 0.04,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.05,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 65,
    "d": 72.58
  },
  "adx14": 43.44,
  "obv": 785344.1287399996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776335001156,
    "price": 0.05292018,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 7.86
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.82,
        "d": 10.45
      },
      "adx14": 22.73,
      "obv": 1784268.3300900005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776335001157,
    "price": 0.05292018,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.13,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 27.33
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 47.14,
        "d": 58.22
      },
      "adx14": 66.26,
      "obv": 1557323.7687000004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776335001158,
    "price": 0.05292018,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 74.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 36.41
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65,
        "d": 72.58
      },
      "adx14": 43.44,
      "obv": 785344.1287399996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776335001158,
    "price": 0.05292018,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 36.42
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.08,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.74,
        "d": 78.6
      },
      "adx14": 15.48,
      "obv": -89110572.46801
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest473608.48
Price0.05
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.24
Leverage2
Stop loss0.05
Take profit0.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %5.52
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 74.2 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PNUT; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander supports the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0529
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$0.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See PNUT chart with overlay More thesesAll PNUT theses