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Thesis · thesis_mo1hg2df_2jrymi
STBL

STBL

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 48d ago · 2026-04-16T12:56:15Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -2.23%.

  • Closed -2.23% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0419
Entry high
$0.0424
Target 1
$0.0448
Target 2
$0.0464
Stop loss
$0.0400
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
47.9
Neutral
ADX 14
16.0
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0400
Lower 0.0300
inside
SMA stack
200.0300
500.0300
2000.0300
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · STBL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

STBL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.031800 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
46,511.6279 STBL
$1.96K
Leverage
0.20x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.98
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0448
+1.23R$123.26(+1.23%)
T2 hit @ 0.0464
+1.98R$197.67(+1.98%)
Stop hit @ 0.04
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open STBL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 117.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 16.9, returned 16.49%, win rate 50.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 36.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0400, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
STBL Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. STBL cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
STBL
Price0.04
Timestamp1776343996161
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 60.82,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.04,
    "middle": 0.04,
    "lower": 0.03,
    "width": 26.11
  },
  "sma20": 0.04,
  "sma50": 0.04,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.04,
  "ema26": 0.04,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 81.51,
    "d": 86.66
  },
  "adx14": 36.15,
  "obv": 9761792.473050004
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "STBL",
    "timestamp": 1776343996160,
    "price": 0.04213652,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.28,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 5.27
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 45.34,
        "d": 41.64
      },
      "adx14": 15.19,
      "obv": 2447782.7482799995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "STBL",
    "timestamp": 1776343996161,
    "price": 0.04213652,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.15,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 7.67
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 59.15,
        "d": 75.81
      },
      "adx14": 29.4,
      "obv": 7557677.345269994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "STBL",
    "timestamp": 1776343996161,
    "price": 0.04213652,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 26.11
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.51,
        "d": 86.66
      },
      "adx14": 36.15,
      "obv": 9761792.473050004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "STBL",
    "timestamp": 1776343996161,
    "price": 0.04213652,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.04,
        "middle": 0.03,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 36.43
      },
      "sma20": 0.03,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.07,
      "ema12": 0.04,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.83,
        "d": 86.53
      },
      "adx14": 19.18,
      "obv": 89690994.67715997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest5717708.32
Price0.04
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.46
Leverage2
Stop loss0.04
Take profit0.05
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %5.07
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for STBL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence92.90
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score2
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.50
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0421
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$5.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See STBL chart with overlay More thesesAll STBL theses