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Thesis · thesis_mo1iog38_e82f5i
INJ

INJ

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T13:31:17Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -3.11%.

  • Closed -3.11% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.4122
Entry high
$3.4534
Target 1
$3.5816
Target 2
$3.6728
Stop loss
$3.3128
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
51.6
Neutral
ADX 14
39.0
Trending
ATR 14
0.3700
5.51% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 7.32
Lower 6.19
inside
SMA stack
206.75
506.30
2005.00
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · INJ
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

INJ · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $6.7050 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
833.3333 INJ
$2.86K
Leverage
0.29x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 3.5816
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 3.6728
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 3.3128
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open INJ on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 82.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • ATR BREAKOUT replay (exact regime) scored 20.5, returned 15.57%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. ATR BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 81.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 42.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $3.3128, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • RSI 77.7 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
INJ Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. INJ cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
INJ
Price3.43
Timestamp1776346104176
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 77.65,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.1,
    "signal": 0.06,
    "histogram": 0.04
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 3.41,
    "middle": 3.1,
    "lower": 2.79,
    "width": 20.26
  },
  "sma20": 3.1,
  "sma50": 3.02,
  "sma200": 2.98,
  "ema12": 3.22,
  "ema26": 3.12,
  "atr14": 0.08,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 94.24,
    "d": 85.99
  },
  "adx14": 42.76,
  "obv": -28816.281552970082
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776346104174,
    "price": 3.43281738,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 76.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.41,
        "middle": 3.35,
        "lower": 3.28,
        "width": 3.9
      },
      "sma20": 3.35,
      "sma50": 3.32,
      "sma200": 3.13,
      "ema12": 3.37,
      "ema26": 3.35,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 81.87,
        "d": 93.96
      },
      "adx14": 26.69,
      "obv": 39716.801392730005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776346104175,
    "price": 3.43281738,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.96,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.07,
        "signal": 0.07,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.43,
        "middle": 3.31,
        "lower": 3.2,
        "width": 6.78
      },
      "sma20": 3.31,
      "sma50": 3.14,
      "sma200": 3.01,
      "ema12": 3.34,
      "ema26": 3.27,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 87.99,
        "d": 81.83
      },
      "adx14": 57.29,
      "obv": -46504.87126835001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776346104175,
    "price": 3.43281738,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 77.65,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.1,
        "signal": 0.06,
        "histogram": 0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.41,
        "middle": 3.1,
        "lower": 2.79,
        "width": 20.26
      },
      "sma20": 3.1,
      "sma50": 3.02,
      "sma200": 2.98,
      "ema12": 3.22,
      "ema26": 3.12,
      "atr14": 0.08,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 94.24,
        "d": 85.99
      },
      "adx14": 42.76,
      "obv": -28816.281552970082
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "INJ",
    "timestamp": 1776346104176,
    "price": 3.43281738,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.11,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.05,
        "signal": -0.01,
        "histogram": 0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.27,
        "middle": 2.94,
        "lower": 2.61,
        "width": 22.3
      },
      "sma20": 2.94,
      "sma50": 3,
      "sma200": 5.32,
      "ema12": 3.07,
      "ema26": 3.02,
      "atr14": 0.17,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.92,
        "d": 80.24
      },
      "adx14": 13.45,
      "obv": -2154897.9913858366
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1759419.24
Price3.43
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.25
Leverage2
Stop loss3.31
Take profit3.67
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.50
Warnings
  • RSI 77.7 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for INJ; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • ATR_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 20.5
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score81.30
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence72.40
Reasons
  • ATR_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 20.5
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. ATR_BREAKOUT is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 81.3.
Live-learning brain
State
rewarding
Score1.30
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score30.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.4328
Funding rate
0.0062%
Open interest
$1.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
ATR_BREAKOUT · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See INJ chart with overlay More thesesAll INJ theses