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Thesis · thesis_mo1ksu9k_yciznx
AVAX

AVAX

 shortLOSS 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T14:30:08Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.03%
peak -0.00% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -3.22%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -3.22% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$9.2442
Entry high
$9.3558
Target 1
$8.9819
Target 2
$8.787
Stop loss
$9.585
AVAX · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
9.66489.22598.78718.34837.90948.28055/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
35.8
Bearish
ADX 14
27.9
Trending
ATR 14
0.2100
2.54% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 9.27
Lower 8.04
inside
SMA stack
208.65
508.86
2009.33
TA Workspace · AVAX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

AVAX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $8.2623 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
350.8772 AVAX
$3.26K
Leverage
0.33x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 8.9819
+1.12R$111.61(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 8.787
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 9.585
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open AVAX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is near 25.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $9.5850, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Bear case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 1h structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 82.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 28.0, returned 23.59%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 57.2.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
AVAX Short: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is still warming. AVAX cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
AVAX
Timestamp1776349668305
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 55.03,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.06,
    "signal": 0.05,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 9.66,
    "middle": 9.38,
    "lower": 9.1,
    "width": 6.03
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0.19,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 41.55
  },
  "adx14": 24.97,
  "obv": 71114.49398975997
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5.5,
  "bearScore": 6.5,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776349668304,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.61,
        "middle": 9.46,
        "lower": 9.32,
        "width": 3.02
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 14.94
      },
      "adx14": 22.48,
      "obv": 42930.91311039001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776349668304,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.56,
        "middle": 9.47,
        "lower": 9.37,
        "width": 2.02
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.11,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 31.35
      },
      "adx14": 17.39,
      "obv": 80428.49434297996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776349668305,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": 0.05,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.66,
        "middle": 9.38,
        "lower": 9.1,
        "width": 6.03
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.19,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 41.55
      },
      "adx14": 24.97,
      "obv": 71114.49398975997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "AVAX",
    "timestamp": 1776349668305,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": -0.03,
        "histogram": 0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 9.65,
        "middle": 9.08,
        "lower": 8.51,
        "width": 12.53
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.51,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 48.66
      },
      "adx14": 8.74,
      "obv": -5174989.525618581
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest52176833.86
Price9.30
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.47
Leverage2
Stop loss9.59
Take profit8.79
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %3.06
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for AVAX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 28.0
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score57.20
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence58.10
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 28.0
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 57.2.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.80
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score44.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$9.3
Funding rate
-0.0010%
Open interest
$52.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See AVAX chart with overlay More thesesAll AVAX theses