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Thesis · thesis_mo1kxugw_dcigld
PNUT

PNUT

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T14:34:04Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.11%
peak +0.26% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +10.96%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Ran to +25.91% at peak but closed +10.96% — gave back 14.95pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0526
Entry high
$0.0532
Target 1
$0.0565
Target 2
$0.0587
Stop loss
$0.0500
PNUT · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.05930.05590.05250.04910.04570.05085/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
47.2
Neutral
ADX 14
16.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.000000
0.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.0600
Lower 0.0500
inside
SMA stack
200.0500
500.0500
2000.0600
TA Workspace · PNUT
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

PNUT · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.050920 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
34,482.7586 PNUT
$1.82K
Leverage
0.18x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0565
+1.24R$124.14(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.0587
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.05
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open PNUT on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 105.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 21.3, returned 13.66%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 44.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
PNUT Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. PNUT cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
PNUT
Price0.05
Timestamp1776349898161
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 73.9,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.05,
    "middle": 0.05,
    "lower": 0.04,
    "width": 36.91
  },
  "sma20": 0.05,
  "sma50": 0.04,
  "sma200": 0.04,
  "ema12": 0.05,
  "ema26": 0.05,
  "atr14": 0,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 64.79,
    "d": 69.69
  },
  "adx14": 44.68,
  "obv": 586246.7678699995
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776349898159,
    "price": 0.05288962,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 7.42
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.05,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20.63,
        "d": 16.7
      },
      "adx14": 15.91,
      "obv": 1773392.5066299997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776349898160,
    "price": 0.05288962,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 54.94,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.06,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 18.48
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.05,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.57,
        "d": 42.02
      },
      "adx14": 67.54,
      "obv": 1666048.6854000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Dragonfly Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776349898160,
    "price": 0.05288962,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 73.9,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.05,
        "lower": 0.04,
        "width": 36.91
      },
      "sma20": 0.05,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.04,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.05,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 64.79,
        "d": 69.69
      },
      "adx14": 44.68,
      "obv": 586246.7678699995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "PNUT",
    "timestamp": 1776349898161,
    "price": 0.05288962,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.05,
        "middle": 0.04,
        "lower": 0.03,
        "width": 36.38
      },
      "sma20": 0.04,
      "sma50": 0.04,
      "sma200": 0.08,
      "ema12": 0.05,
      "ema26": 0.04,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.58,
        "d": 78.54
      },
      "adx14": 15.48,
      "obv": -88908698.17630999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest464975.12
Price0.05
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.27
Leverage2
Stop loss0.05
Take profit0.06
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %5.46
Warnings
  • ATR missing; using Bollinger range as volatility proxy.
  • RSI 73.9 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for PNUT; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.3
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.40
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0529
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$0.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See PNUT chart with overlay More thesesAll PNUT theses