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Thesis · thesis_mo1os56e_glvpt3
FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T16:21:59Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.49%.

  • Closed -0.49% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2139
Entry high
$0.2165
Target 1
$0.2338
Target 2
$0.2452
Stop loss
$0.2002
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
42.5
Bearish
ADX 14
44.3
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.0100
6.85% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1600
2000.2000
TA Workspace · FARTCOIN
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FARTCOIN · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.146120 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 FARTCOIN
$1.43K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2338
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.2452
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.2002
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FARTCOIN on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 103.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 21.0, returned 11.36%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 68.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 25.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2002, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
FARTCOIN Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. FARTCOIN cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FARTCOIN
Price0.22
Timestamp1776356333153
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 62.42,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.22,
    "middle": 0.2,
    "lower": 0.18,
    "width": 19.79
  },
  "sma20": 0.2,
  "sma50": 0.2,
  "sma200": 0.18,
  "ema12": 0.21,
  "ema26": 0.2,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 73.53,
    "d": 77.67
  },
  "adx14": 25.42,
  "obv": 16646133.652249996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776356333152,
    "price": 0.2152,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 51.54,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.21,
        "width": 6.8
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.21,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.21,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 51.35,
        "d": 53.87
      },
      "adx14": 18.95,
      "obv": -4486683.508049994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776356333152,
    "price": 0.2152,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.85,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.21,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 7.09
      },
      "sma20": 0.21,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.21,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 51.35,
        "d": 46.11
      },
      "adx14": 45.96,
      "obv": -9164022.276440002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776356333153,
    "price": 0.2152,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.2,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 19.79
      },
      "sma20": 0.2,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.18,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 73.53,
        "d": 77.67
      },
      "adx14": 25.42,
      "obv": 16646133.652249996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776356333153,
    "price": 0.2152,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.86,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 37.4
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.18,
      "sma200": 0.29,
      "ema12": 0.19,
      "ema26": 0.19,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.92,
        "d": 50.58
      },
      "adx14": 29.87,
      "obv": -184446696.57860994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest53528094.37
Price0.22
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.20
Take profit0.25
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.97
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FARTCOIN; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.0
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score68.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence62.80
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.0
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 68.9.
Live-learning brain
State
rewarding
Score2
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score38.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2152
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$53.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See FARTCOIN chart with overlay More thesesAll FARTCOIN theses