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Thesis · thesis_mo1r4nub_s3zc0d
HYPE

HYPE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 93d ago · 2026-04-16T17:27:15Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.89%.

  • Closed -0.89% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$43.618
Entry high
$44.012
Target 1
$45.0364
Target 2
$45.785
Stop loss
$42.83
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
40.1
Bearish
ADX 14
35.2
Trending
ATR 14
1.36
2.25% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 67.82
Lower 55.90
inside
SMA stack
2061.86
5064.44
20066.51
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $60.4290 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
101.5228 HYPE
$4.45K
Leverage
0.44x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 45.0364
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 45.785
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 42.83
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 101.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 14.15%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 78.1.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 44.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $42.8300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. HYPE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price43.81
Timestamp1776360248217
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 52.35,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.76,
    "signal": 0.89,
    "histogram": -0.13
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.59,
    "middle": 44.21,
    "lower": 42.83,
    "width": 6.25
  },
  "sma20": 44.21,
  "sma50": 42.11,
  "sma200": 39.23,
  "ema12": 44.34,
  "ema26": 43.58,
  "atr14": 1.18,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 27.1,
    "d": 42.62
  },
  "adx14": 44.55,
  "obv": 1208240.0686839595
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776360248216,
    "price": 43.815,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 25.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.23,
        "signal": -0.15,
        "histogram": -0.07
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.26,
        "middle": 44.63,
        "lower": 43.99,
        "width": 2.84
      },
      "sma20": 44.63,
      "sma50": 44.99,
      "sma200": 44.32,
      "ema12": 44.41,
      "ema26": 44.64,
      "atr14": 0.28,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 11.69,
        "d": 21.3
      },
      "adx14": 37.06,
      "obv": 141050.56336385992
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776360248216,
    "price": 43.815,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.32,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.04,
        "signal": 0.14,
        "histogram": -0.17
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.77,
        "middle": 44.84,
        "lower": 43.91,
        "width": 4.14
      },
      "sma20": 44.84,
      "sma50": 44.33,
      "sma200": 42.08,
      "ema12": 44.62,
      "ema26": 44.66,
      "atr14": 0.61,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.76,
        "d": 24.7
      },
      "adx14": 23.78,
      "obv": 125758.01046094003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "below_lower",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776360248217,
    "price": 43.815,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.76,
        "signal": 0.89,
        "histogram": -0.13
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.59,
        "middle": 44.21,
        "lower": 42.83,
        "width": 6.25
      },
      "sma20": 44.21,
      "sma50": 42.11,
      "sma200": 39.23,
      "ema12": 44.34,
      "ema26": 43.58,
      "atr14": 1.18,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 27.1,
        "d": 42.62
      },
      "adx14": 44.55,
      "obv": 1208240.0686839595
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776360248217,
    "price": 43.815,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.27,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.9,
        "signal": 1.34,
        "histogram": 0.56
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.42,
        "middle": 39.26,
        "lower": 33.1,
        "width": 31.39
      },
      "sma20": 39.26,
      "sma50": 37.06,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 41.6,
      "ema26": 39.7,
      "atr14": 2.53,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.24,
        "d": 77.77
      },
      "adx14": 29.07,
      "obv": -53222.72793947047
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest924817206.57
Price43.81
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %3.88
Leverage3
Stop loss42.83
Take profit45.78
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.25
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score78.10
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence71.50
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 78.1.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-3.10
Note
Recent live theses aged out without enough follow-through, so the desk is reducing priority until structure refreshes.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score46.60
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$43.815
Funding rate
0.0002%
Open interest
$924.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses