EGOLDSv4
Sign in
Back to library
Thesis · thesis_mo1szrzb_06wug6
FARTCOIN

FARTCOIN

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T18:19:29Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.08% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.69%.

  • Closed +0.69% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2124
Entry high
$0.2150
Target 1
$0.2307
Target 2
$0.2411
Stop loss
$0.2000
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
42.8
Bearish
ADX 14
44.3
Very strong trend
ATR 14
0.0100
6.84% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.1600
Lower 0.1400
inside
SMA stack
200.1500
500.1600
2000.2000
TA Workspace · FARTCOIN
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

FARTCOIN · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.146770 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
7,299.2701 FARTCOIN
$1.56K
Leverage
0.16x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2307
+1.24R$124.09(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.2411
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.2
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open FARTCOIN on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 99.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 21.0, returned 11.36%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 62.3.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 25.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
FARTCOIN Long: selective command with guarded risk

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. FARTCOIN cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
FARTCOIN
Price0.21
Timestamp1776363406176
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 60.81,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.22,
    "middle": 0.2,
    "lower": 0.18,
    "width": 19.65
  },
  "sma20": 0.2,
  "sma50": 0.2,
  "sma200": 0.18,
  "ema12": 0.21,
  "ema26": 0.2,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 69.15,
    "d": 76.21
  },
  "adx14": 25.42,
  "obv": 15368325.732149996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776363406175,
    "price": 0.2137103,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 49.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.21,
        "lower": 0.21,
        "width": 6.05
      },
      "sma20": 0.21,
      "sma50": 0.21,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.21,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 54.85,
        "d": 57.32
      },
      "adx14": 15.16,
      "obv": -2958178.3753299965
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776363406175,
    "price": 0.2137103,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.21,
        "lower": 0.21,
        "width": 6.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.21,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.19,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.21,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.3,
        "d": 39.12
      },
      "adx14": 46.13,
      "obv": -7987553.125440008
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776363406176,
    "price": 0.2137103,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.81,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.2,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 19.65
      },
      "sma20": 0.2,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.18,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.15,
        "d": 76.21
      },
      "adx14": 25.42,
      "obv": 15368325.732149996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "FARTCOIN",
    "timestamp": 1776363406176,
    "price": 0.2137103,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.18,
        "lower": 0.15,
        "width": 37.09
      },
      "sma20": 0.18,
      "sma50": 0.18,
      "sma200": 0.29,
      "ema12": 0.19,
      "ema26": 0.19,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 59.29,
        "d": 50.04
      },
      "adx14": 29.87,
      "obv": -183168888.65850994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest51210064.24
Price0.21
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
high
Max position %1.79
Leverage1
Stop loss0.20
Take profit0.24
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.42
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for FARTCOIN; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.0
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score62.30
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence58.50
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 21.0
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 62.3.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score38.50
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.2137
Funding rate
0.0050%
Open interest
$51.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See FARTCOIN chart with overlay More thesesAll FARTCOIN theses