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Thesis · thesis_mo1x0sjo_gaqsj5
LDO

LDO

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T20:12:11Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.03%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.83%.

  • Closed -1.83% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4443
Entry high
$0.4497
Target 1
$0.4842
Target 2
$0.5070
Stop loss
$0.4170
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death cross
RSI 14
42.9
Bearish
ADX 14
20.8
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
3.22% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.3400
Lower 0.3000
inside
SMA stack
200.3200
500.3200
2000.3600
PatternsBearish Engulfing
TA Workspace · LDO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

LDO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.311230 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 LDO
$1.49K
Leverage
0.15x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.4842
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.507
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.417
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open LDO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 145.9 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 23.9, returned 20.83%, win rate 55.6%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. MACD MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 45.3, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4170, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating.

Final thesis
LDO Long: attack command with guarded risk

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Recent live outcomes are cooling rather than accelerating. LDO cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
LDO
Price0.45
Timestamp1776370186150
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 80.2,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.03,
    "signal": 0.02,
    "histogram": 0.01
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.44,
    "middle": 0.37,
    "lower": 0.31,
    "width": 34.57
  },
  "sma20": 0.37,
  "sma50": 0.34,
  "sma200": 0.32,
  "ema12": 0.4,
  "ema26": 0.37,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 95.51,
    "d": 98.2
  },
  "adx14": 45.34,
  "obv": 2946879.28700776
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776370186149,
    "price": 0.44701716,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 73.29,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.45,
        "middle": 0.42,
        "lower": 0.39,
        "width": 14.89
      },
      "sma20": 0.42,
      "sma50": 0.41,
      "sma200": 0.38,
      "ema12": 0.43,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.03,
        "d": 95.27
      },
      "adx14": 31.99,
      "obv": 344707.81492617005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776370186149,
    "price": 0.44701716,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 73.62,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.44,
        "middle": 0.4,
        "lower": 0.36,
        "width": 20.26
      },
      "sma20": 0.4,
      "sma50": 0.38,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.42,
      "ema26": 0.4,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 92.56,
        "d": 96.38
      },
      "adx14": 62.12,
      "obv": 569830.4499157101
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776370186150,
    "price": 0.44701716,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 80.2,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.03,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.44,
        "middle": 0.37,
        "lower": 0.31,
        "width": 34.57
      },
      "sma20": 0.37,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.4,
      "ema26": 0.37,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.51,
        "d": 98.2
      },
      "adx14": 45.34,
      "obv": 2946879.28700776
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "LDO",
    "timestamp": 1776370186150,
    "price": 0.44701716,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 76.34,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.4,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.27,
        "width": 38.45
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.58,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.63,
        "d": 77.52
      },
      "adx14": 28.61,
      "obv": -15176399.405259594
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest7697536.33
Price0.45
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
high
Max position %1.64
Leverage1
Stop loss0.42
Take profit0.51
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.71
Warnings
  • RSI 80.2 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for LDO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence88.20
Reasons
  • MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. MACD_MOMENTUM is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.40
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score75.50
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Simulation lab has a clear winner and enough validation for AI to command confidently.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.447
Funding rate
0.0100%
Open interest
$7.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See LDO chart with overlay More thesesAll LDO theses