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Thesis · thesis_mo1zkwpi_pyvfoc
HYPE

HYPE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T21:23:48Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.61%.

  • Closed +0.61% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$43.4695
Entry high
$43.6393
Target 1
$44.0807
Target 2
$44.4033
Stop loss
$43.13
HYPE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
77.4668.4759.4850.4941.573.055/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
59.7
Bullish
ADX 14
31.5
Trending
ATR 14
2.74
3.74% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75.37
Lower 68.23
inside
SMA stack
2071.80
5066.35
20051.59
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $73.0730 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
235.6268 HYPE
$10.26K
Leverage
1.03x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$22.3344
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 44.0807
+1.24R$124.01(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 44.4033
+2.00R$200.02(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 43.13
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 122.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 14.15%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 86.1.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 43.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $43.1300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
constructive

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: constructive command backs the directional case

The desk sees a credible setup, but still wants disciplined execution rather than chasing. Simulation leadership still looks competitive. Strategy command is defensive. HYPE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price43.55
Timestamp1776374472293
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 50.1,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.66,
    "signal": 0.85,
    "histogram": -0.18
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.43,
    "middle": 44.28,
    "lower": 43.13,
    "width": 5.21
  },
  "sma20": 44.28,
  "sma50": 42.21,
  "sma200": 39.26,
  "ema12": 44.26,
  "ema26": 43.6,
  "atr14": 1.16,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 20.47,
    "d": 36.34
  },
  "adx14": 43.41,
  "obv": 1144866.8185503704
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776374472292,
    "price": 43.55441872,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.79,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.24,
        "signal": -0.24,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.34,
        "middle": 43.84,
        "lower": 43.34,
        "width": 2.29
      },
      "sma20": 43.84,
      "sma50": 44.5,
      "sma200": 44.35,
      "ema12": 43.77,
      "ema26": 44.01,
      "atr14": 0.24,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 13.92,
        "d": 13.97
      },
      "adx14": 38.05,
      "obv": 135993.08194339
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Dark Cloud Cover",
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776374472293,
    "price": 43.55441872,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 38.33,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.22,
        "signal": -0.04,
        "histogram": -0.18
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.95,
        "middle": 44.69,
        "lower": 43.44,
        "width": 5.62
      },
      "sma20": 44.69,
      "sma50": 44.36,
      "sma200": 42.17,
      "ema12": 44.22,
      "ema26": 44.43,
      "atr14": 0.58,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 5.22,
        "d": 15.78
      },
      "adx14": 25.3,
      "obv": 134054.14697487003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776374472293,
    "price": 43.55441872,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 50.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.66,
        "signal": 0.85,
        "histogram": -0.18
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.43,
        "middle": 44.28,
        "lower": 43.13,
        "width": 5.21
      },
      "sma20": 44.28,
      "sma50": 42.21,
      "sma200": 39.26,
      "ema12": 44.26,
      "ema26": 43.6,
      "atr14": 1.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 20.47,
        "d": 36.34
      },
      "adx14": 43.41,
      "obv": 1144866.8185503704
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776374472293,
    "price": 43.55441872,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.88,
        "signal": 1.34,
        "histogram": 0.54
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.37,
        "middle": 39.25,
        "lower": 33.12,
        "width": 31.21
      },
      "sma20": 39.25,
      "sma50": 37.05,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 41.56,
      "ema26": 39.68,
      "atr14": 2.55,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 72.99,
        "d": 77.02
      },
      "adx14": 29.07,
      "obv": -74400.92175791049
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest941046624.47
Price43.55
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss43.13
Take profit44.40
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.97
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score86.10
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence76.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 86.1.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-2.10
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score41.60
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$43.5544
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$941.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses