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Thesis · thesis_mo1zxmr5_s2nb1h
ALCH

ALCH

 longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T21:33:46Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak -0.01% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -2.08%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -2.08% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.0813
Entry high
$0.0819
Target 1
$0.0836
Target 2
$0.0848
Stop loss
$0.0800
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for ALCH. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for ALCH should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for ALCH
TA Workspace · ALCH
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ALCH · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $66788.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
62,500 BTC
$5.10K
Leverage
0.51x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.0836
+1.25R$125.00(+1.25%)
T2 hit @ 0.0848
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.08
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • FredAI memory aligns with the live structure read.
  • Candidate quality is 66.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI TREND REENTRY replay (latest asset) scored 40.1, returned 46.86%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 68.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 35.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.0800, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
ALCH Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. ALCH cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ALCH
Price0.08
Timestamp1776375087467
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 55.21,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.1,
    "middle": 0.08,
    "lower": 0.05,
    "width": 56.35
  },
  "sma20": 0.08,
  "sma50": 0.07,
  "sma200": 0.07,
  "ema12": 0.08,
  "ema26": 0.08,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 45.4,
    "d": 45.94
  },
  "adx14": 35.08,
  "obv": 104425.76380999996
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ALCH",
    "timestamp": 1776375087466,
    "price": 0.08161,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.08,
        "middle": 0.08,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 4.08
      },
      "sma20": 0.08,
      "sma50": 0.08,
      "sma200": 0.08,
      "ema12": 0.08,
      "ema26": 0.08,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 38.23,
        "d": 42.66
      },
      "adx14": null,
      "obv": -205932.51963
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ALCH",
    "timestamp": 1776375087466,
    "price": 0.08161,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.09,
        "middle": 0.08,
        "lower": 0.08,
        "width": 12.34
      },
      "sma20": 0.08,
      "sma50": 0.08,
      "sma200": 0.07,
      "ema12": 0.08,
      "ema26": 0.08,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 35.92,
        "d": 46.53
      },
      "adx14": 12.91,
      "obv": -306432.53714999993
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ALCH",
    "timestamp": 1776375087467,
    "price": 0.08161,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.21,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.1,
        "middle": 0.08,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 56.35
      },
      "sma20": 0.08,
      "sma50": 0.07,
      "sma200": 0.07,
      "ema12": 0.08,
      "ema26": 0.08,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 45.4,
        "d": 45.94
      },
      "adx14": 35.08,
      "obv": 104425.76380999996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ALCH",
    "timestamp": 1776375087467,
    "price": 0.08161,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.97,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.08,
        "middle": 0.07,
        "lower": 0.05,
        "width": 38.43
      },
      "sma20": 0.07,
      "sma50": 0.07,
      "sma200": 0.11,
      "ema12": 0.07,
      "ema26": 0.07,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 48.96,
        "d": 47.3
      },
      "adx14": 43.02,
      "obv": 1500073.4347999995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Price0.08
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.08
Take profit0.08
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.97
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ALCH; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 40.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score68.70
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence66.60
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 40.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 68.7.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score22.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.0816
Funding rate
0.0050%
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bear_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bear_highvol
Replay strategy
RSI_TREND_REENTRY · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ALCH chart with overlay More thesesAll ALCH theses