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Thesis · thesis_mo21nofd_uu90o3
ZEC

ZEC

 shortLOSS 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-16T22:21:57Z · expires 2026-04-19

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
46/78
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.04%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.04%
R:R
1.8:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
SHORT · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -4.48%.

  • Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
  • Was up +2.50% before reversing into a loss — the winner was there but never locked in. Strongest case for a breakeven/trailing stop.
  • Max adverse excursion hit -4.48% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
  • Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$336.3946
Entry high
$340.4557
Target 1
$322.1261
Target 2
$312.1364
Stop loss
$353.03
ZEC · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
663.95571.81479.67387.53295.38611.995/29 12:005/30 18:006/1 00:006/2 06:006/3 12:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
60.9
Bullish
ADX 14
28.3
Trending
ATR 14
30.56
5.00% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 623.77
Lower 519.83
inside
SMA stack
20571.80
50557.68
200550.27
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · ZEC
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

ZEC · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $611.7500 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6.847 ZEC
$2.32K
Leverage
0.23x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 1.80
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 322.1261
+1.12R$111.60(+1.12%)
T2 hit @ 312.1364
+1.80R$180.00(+1.80%)
Stop hit @ 353.03
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open ZEC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • ADX is only near 17.7, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
  • The stop band sits near $353.0300, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Bear case
  • 1h ADX says trend strength is still soft.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h structure leans heavy.
  • Candidate quality is 107.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 23.7, returned 15.83%, win rate 85.7%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable.

Final thesis
ZEC Short: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy command is aligned enough to press the idea. Simulation leadership is still unstable. ZEC cleared the desk with the SHORT case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
ZEC
Price338.43
Timestamp1776377964145
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 42.38,
  "macd": {
    "macd": -3.91,
    "signal": -1.7,
    "histogram": -2.21
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 372.5,
    "middle": 353.03,
    "lower": 333.55,
    "width": 11.03
  },
  "sma20": 353.03,
  "sma50": 356.77,
  "sma200": 269.12,
  "ema12": 346.54,
  "ema26": 350.45,
  "atr14": 12.23,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 17.85,
    "d": 18.88
  },
  "adx14": 17.66,
  "obv": 138597.29502608
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bearish Engulfing"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bear"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776377964143,
    "price": 338.42514345,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 43.46,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.33,
        "signal": 0.56,
        "histogram": -0.22
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 346.46,
        "middle": 340.96,
        "lower": 335.45,
        "width": 3.23
      },
      "sma20": 340.96,
      "sma50": 341.21,
      "sma200": 348.77,
      "ema12": 341.34,
      "ema26": 341,
      "atr14": 2.44,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 2.2,
        "d": 32.14
      },
      "adx14": 22.14,
      "obv": -5776.736833579998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776377964144,
    "price": 338.42514345,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.76,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -2.26,
        "signal": -2.78,
        "histogram": 0.53
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 346.98,
        "middle": 341.19,
        "lower": 335.4,
        "width": 3.39
      },
      "sma20": 341.19,
      "sma50": 348.57,
      "sma200": 357.04,
      "ema12": 341.12,
      "ema26": 343.38,
      "atr14": 5.16,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 39.29,
        "d": 56.44
      },
      "adx14": 12.09,
      "obv": 20212.57887003003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776377964145,
    "price": 338.42514345,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.38,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -3.91,
        "signal": -1.7,
        "histogram": -2.21
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 372.5,
        "middle": 353.03,
        "lower": 333.55,
        "width": 11.03
      },
      "sma20": 353.03,
      "sma50": 356.77,
      "sma200": 269.12,
      "ema12": 346.54,
      "ema26": 350.45,
      "atr14": 12.23,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 17.85,
        "d": 18.88
      },
      "adx14": 17.66,
      "obv": 138597.29502608
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "ZEC",
    "timestamp": 1776377964145,
    "price": 338.42514345,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.28,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 32.46,
        "signal": 28.14,
        "histogram": 4.33
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 415.04,
        "middle": 295.29,
        "lower": 175.54,
        "width": 81.11
      },
      "sma20": 295.29,
      "sma50": 253.47,
      "sma200": 342.85,
      "ema12": 331.74,
      "ema26": 299.27,
      "atr14": 27.66,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 65.53,
        "d": 70.46
      },
      "adx14": 37.37,
      "obv": 2347703.2871245258
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest103398689.24
Price338.43
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.84
Leverage2
Stop loss353.03
Take profit312.14
Risk:Reward
1.8:1
Max drawdown %4.32
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for ZEC; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
short
Spread22
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction25
Bear Conviction78
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_elite at 32.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander is elite and aligned with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab A is validated
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.7
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence94.50
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory
  • overfit penalty remains manageable at 14.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 23.7
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is graded A in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-8.20
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
supported
Score70.40
Note
Strategy lab is supportive enough for AI to command with normal controls.
Strategy lab brain
State
validated
Evidence Grade
A
Note
Strategy lab is validated enough for AI to command with confidence.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$338.4251
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$103.4M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
supported
Strategy lab
validated
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See ZEC chart with overlay More thesesAll ZEC theses