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Thesis · thesis_mo21qmen_d5osh4
M

M

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 92d ago · 2026-04-16T22:24:18Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.15%
peak +0.27% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +14.63%.

  • Ran to +26.71% at peak but closed +14.63% — gave back 12.08pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$3.6695
Entry high
$3.7138
Target 1
$4.0264
Target 2
$4.2316
Stop loss
$3.4216
Technical analysis · 4h

No TA cached for M. The data-engine computes TA for the top ~10 assets proactively; on-demand fetch for M should populate within a minute on the next refresh.

Open Chart Lab for M
TA Workspace · M
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

M · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $64580.00 · max 40x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
370.3018 BTC
$1.37K
Leverage
0.14x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 4.0264
+1.24R$123.96(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 4.2316
+2.00R$199.94(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 3.4216
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open BTC on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 85.5 and the desk still classifies the setup as still on the watch lane.
  • BOLLINGER REVERSAL replay (latest asset) scored 24.1, returned 17.25%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 61.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 44.1, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $3.4216, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Recent evidence is still fresh. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
M Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Recent evidence is still fresh. Strategy command is defensive. M cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
M
Price3.69
Timestamp1776378111175
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 79.98,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.18,
    "signal": 0.09,
    "histogram": 0.09
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 3.56,
    "middle": 2.95,
    "lower": 2.35,
    "width": 41.14
  },
  "sma20": 2.95,
  "sma50": 2.81,
  "sma200": 2.29,
  "ema12": 3.17,
  "ema26": 2.99,
  "atr14": 0.18,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 77.85,
    "d": 76.14
  },
  "adx14": 44.13,
  "obv": 656054.9933999999
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776378111174,
    "price": 3.6916,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.91,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.06,
        "signal": 0.07,
        "histogram": -0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.72,
        "middle": 3.65,
        "lower": 3.57,
        "width": 4.09
      },
      "sma20": 3.65,
      "sma50": 3.44,
      "sma200": 3,
      "ema12": 3.67,
      "ema26": 3.61,
      "atr14": 0.06,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.74,
        "d": 92.71
      },
      "adx14": 21.14,
      "obv": 108355.90981000003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Dark Cloud Cover"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776378111174,
    "price": 3.6916,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 82.26,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.23,
        "signal": 0.18,
        "histogram": 0.05
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 4.03,
        "middle": 3.24,
        "lower": 2.46,
        "width": 48.33
      },
      "sma20": 3.24,
      "sma50": 3.01,
      "sma200": 2.8,
      "ema12": 3.5,
      "ema26": 3.28,
      "atr14": 0.12,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.85,
        "d": 77.61
      },
      "adx14": 36.79,
      "obv": 271174.39822000015
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776378111175,
    "price": 3.6916,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 79.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.18,
        "signal": 0.09,
        "histogram": 0.09
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.56,
        "middle": 2.95,
        "lower": 2.35,
        "width": 41.14
      },
      "sma20": 2.95,
      "sma50": 2.81,
      "sma200": 2.29,
      "ema12": 3.17,
      "ema26": 2.99,
      "atr14": 0.18,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 77.85,
        "d": 76.14
      },
      "adx14": 44.13,
      "obv": 656054.9933999999
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "M",
    "timestamp": 1776378111175,
    "price": 3.6916,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 80.17,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.3,
        "signal": 0.26,
        "histogram": 0.04
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 3.27,
        "middle": 2.65,
        "lower": 2.03,
        "width": 46.69
      },
      "sma20": 2.65,
      "sma50": 2.04,
      "sma200": 1.83,
      "ema12": 2.84,
      "ema26": 2.54,
      "atr14": 0.31,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.13,
        "d": 74.48
      },
      "adx14": 59.77,
      "obv": 2456874.8239599997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 9.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0
Open Interest0
Price3.69
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss3.42
Take profit4.23
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %7.31
Warnings
  • RSI 80.0 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for M; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score61.50
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence58.70
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • replay remains supportive with score 24.1
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 61.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score11.20
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$3.6916
Funding rate
0.0000%
Open interest
$0.0M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_highvol
Replay strategy
BOLLINGER_REVERSAL · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See M chart with overlay More thesesAll M theses