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Thesis · thesis_mo25p32y_amq86y
KAITO

KAITO

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T00:15:05Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.06% · MAE +0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +1.09%.

  • Closed +1.09% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4701
Entry high
$0.4757
Target 1
$0.4915
Target 2
$0.5029
Stop loss
$0.4579
KAITO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.50620.48810.470.45180.43370.4655/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · death cross
RSI 14
52.9
Neutral
ADX 14
15.5
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.15% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4700
Lower 0.4500
inside
SMA stack
200.4600
500.4700
2000.4800
TA Workspace · KAITO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

KAITO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.464650 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 KAITO
$3.15K
Leverage
0.32x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.4915
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.5029
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.4579
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open KAITO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 122.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI TREND REENTRY replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 18.30%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.4.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 29.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4579, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
KAITO Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming. KAITO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
KAITO
Price0.47
Timestamp1776384766389
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 69.02,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.48,
    "middle": 0.45,
    "lower": 0.42,
    "width": 14.19
  },
  "sma20": 0.45,
  "sma50": 0.42,
  "sma200": 0.4,
  "ema12": 0.46,
  "ema26": 0.44,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 95.45,
    "d": 93.95
  },
  "adx14": 28.97,
  "obv": 114751.52640000002
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776384766387,
    "price": 0.4729,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.37,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.47,
        "lower": 0.46,
        "width": 2.72
      },
      "sma20": 0.47,
      "sma50": 0.46,
      "sma200": 0.45,
      "ema12": 0.47,
      "ema26": 0.47,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.32,
        "d": 60.32
      },
      "adx14": 18.79,
      "obv": -63.24627000000066
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776384766388,
    "price": 0.4729,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.75,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.46,
        "lower": 0.44,
        "width": 7.89
      },
      "sma20": 0.46,
      "sma50": 0.45,
      "sma200": 0.42,
      "ema12": 0.47,
      "ema26": 0.46,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 91.61,
        "d": 91.61
      },
      "adx14": 25.49,
      "obv": -46671.77775999996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776384766388,
    "price": 0.4729,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 69.02,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.45,
        "lower": 0.42,
        "width": 14.19
      },
      "sma20": 0.45,
      "sma50": 0.42,
      "sma200": 0.4,
      "ema12": 0.46,
      "ema26": 0.44,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 95.45,
        "d": 93.95
      },
      "adx14": 28.97,
      "obv": 114751.52640000002
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776384766389,
    "price": 0.4729,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 68.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.47,
        "middle": 0.42,
        "lower": 0.37,
        "width": 24.14
      },
      "sma20": 0.42,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.61,
      "ema12": 0.44,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.57,
        "d": 84.57
      },
      "adx14": 37.58,
      "obv": 599626.4576599995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest2135528.24
Price0.47
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.41
Leverage2
Stop loss0.46
Take profit0.50
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.17
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for KAITO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score98.40
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence87.90
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 98.4.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score46.10
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4729
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$2.1M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_TREND_REENTRY · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See KAITO chart with overlay More thesesAll KAITO theses