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Thesis · thesis_mo25s3u1_tw3fej
GRASS

GRASS

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T00:17:25Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.02%
peak +0.02% · MAE +0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +1.51%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +1.51% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3504
Entry high
$0.3512
Target 1
$0.3525
Target 2
$0.3536
Stop loss
$0.3494
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.54820.49610.4440.3920.33990.50975/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
58.0
Bullish
ADX 14
25.8
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
5.89% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.5100
Lower 0.4400
above upper
SMA stack
200.4800
500.4900
2000.4000
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.508960 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
71,428.5714 GRASS
$25.06K
Leverage
2.51x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$0.280800
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3525
+1.21R$121.43(+1.21%)
T2 hit @ 0.3536
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.3494
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • Candidate quality is 108.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 22.6, returned 15.44%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 80.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 25.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3494, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
GRASS Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. GRASS cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.35
Timestamp1776384907384
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 53.67,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.37,
    "middle": 0.35,
    "lower": 0.32,
    "width": 15.13
  },
  "sma20": 0.35,
  "sma50": 0.34,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.35,
  "ema26": 0.35,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 50.6,
    "d": 56.56
  },
  "adx14": 25.4,
  "obv": -496548.9723900001
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776384907383,
    "price": 0.3508,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 30.42,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 3.64
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 0
      },
      "adx14": 24.08,
      "obv": 34697.085620000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776384907383,
    "price": 0.3508,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 44.94,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 6.24
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 25.1,
        "d": 25.1
      },
      "adx14": 20.51,
      "obv": 88785.56619999991
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776384907384,
    "price": 0.3508,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.67,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.32,
        "width": 15.13
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50.6,
        "d": 56.56
      },
      "adx14": 25.4,
      "obv": -496548.9723900001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776384907384,
    "price": 0.3508,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.83,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.31,
        "lower": 0.26,
        "width": 36.82
      },
      "sma20": 0.31,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.76,
        "d": 78.9
      },
      "adx14": 27.24,
      "obv": -74740.45330000014
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1503569.56
Price0.35
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss0.35
Take profit0.35
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.40
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.6
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score80.50
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence75.40
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 22.6
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 80.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score28.70
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3508
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses