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Thesis · thesis_mo25v3zd_er866r
WIF

WIF

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T00:19:50Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
64/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.09%.

  • Closed -1.09% at conviction 64/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.2167
Entry high
$0.2193
Target 1
$0.2366
Target 2
$0.2480
Stop loss
$0.2030
WIF · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.25190.23050.20920.18790.16650.195/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
54.5
Neutral
ADX 14
12.9
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0100
5.26% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.2000
Lower 0.1700
inside
SMA stack
200.1900
500.1900
2000.2000
TA Workspace · WIF
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

WIF · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.189420 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 WIF
$1.45K
Leverage
0.15x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.2366
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.248
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.203
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open WIF on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 98.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • MACD MOMENTUM replay (exact regime) scored 18.9, returned 13.46%, win rate 55.6%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 71.8.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 36.2, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.2030, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
WIF Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is defensive. WIF cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
WIF
Price0.22
Timestamp1776385047461
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 64.61,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.22,
    "middle": 0.2,
    "lower": 0.18,
    "width": 20.17
  },
  "sma20": 0.2,
  "sma50": 0.2,
  "sma200": 0.18,
  "ema12": 0.21,
  "ema26": 0.2,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 76.6,
    "d": 84.21
  },
  "adx14": 36.17,
  "obv": 3320460.523480003
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "WIF",
    "timestamp": 1776385047460,
    "price": 0.218,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 46.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.23,
        "middle": 0.22,
        "lower": 0.22,
        "width": 4.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.22,
      "sma50": 0.22,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.22,
      "ema26": 0.22,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 28.75,
        "d": 27.08
      },
      "adx14": 13.55,
      "obv": 139516.13390999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "WIF",
    "timestamp": 1776385047460,
    "price": 0.218,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.23,
        "middle": 0.21,
        "lower": 0.2,
        "width": 9.62
      },
      "sma20": 0.21,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.2,
      "ema12": 0.22,
      "ema26": 0.21,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 57.14,
        "d": 61.86
      },
      "adx14": 55.77,
      "obv": 597798.7230200003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "bearish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "WIF",
    "timestamp": 1776385047461,
    "price": 0.218,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.2,
        "lower": 0.18,
        "width": 20.17
      },
      "sma20": 0.2,
      "sma50": 0.2,
      "sma200": 0.18,
      "ema12": 0.21,
      "ema26": 0.2,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.6,
        "d": 84.21
      },
      "adx14": 36.17,
      "obv": 3320460.523480003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "WIF",
    "timestamp": 1776385047461,
    "price": 0.218,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 63.88,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.22,
        "middle": 0.19,
        "lower": 0.17,
        "width": 27.09
      },
      "sma20": 0.19,
      "sma50": 0.19,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.2,
      "ema26": 0.19,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 83.91,
        "d": 82.48
      },
      "adx14": 22.87,
      "obv": -48589215.41748003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest7904430.31
Price0.22
Risk officer memo
Approvedno
Risk rating
high
Max position %1
Leverage1
Stop loss0.20
Take profit0.25
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %6.88
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for WIF; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.9
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score71.80
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence66.20
Reasons
  • BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 18.9
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. BOLLINGER_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 71.8.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent live execution is still cooling through a noisy reset, so the desk wants more stability first.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score36.80
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.218
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$7.9M
Macro regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_trend_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
MACD_MOMENTUM · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See WIF chart with overlay More thesesAll WIF theses