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Thesis · thesis_mo27zma3_rdse65
HYPE

HYPE

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T01:19:13Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.67%.

  • Closed -0.67% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$43.6852
Entry high
$43.9328
Target 1
$44.5766
Target 2
$45.047
Stop loss
$43.19
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
58.4
Bullish
ADX 14
31.5
Trending
ATR 14
2.74
3.77% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75.31
Lower 68.24
inside
SMA stack
2071.77
5066.33
20051.59
PatternsBullish Harami
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $72.8120 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
161.5509 HYPE
$7.08K
Leverage
0.71x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 44.5766
+1.24R$124.01(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 45.047
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 43.19
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 118.7 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 14.15%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 66.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 42.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $43.1900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. HYPE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price43.81
Timestamp1776388568173
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 52.08,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.59,
    "signal": 0.8,
    "histogram": -0.2
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.41,
    "middle": 44.3,
    "lower": 43.19,
    "width": 5.02
  },
  "sma20": 44.3,
  "sma50": 42.33,
  "sma200": 39.29,
  "ema12": 44.23,
  "ema26": 43.63,
  "atr14": 1.13,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 26.95,
    "d": 30.1
  },
  "adx14": 42.53,
  "obv": 1153332.3716132098
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776388568173,
    "price": 43.809,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.03,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.01,
        "signal": -0.07,
        "histogram": 0.06
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.18,
        "middle": 43.73,
        "lower": 43.29,
        "width": 2.04
      },
      "sma20": 43.73,
      "sma50": 44.06,
      "sma200": 44.38,
      "ema12": 43.87,
      "ema26": 43.88,
      "atr14": 0.22,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 37.93,
        "d": 60.63
      },
      "adx14": 22.16,
      "obv": 126421.45909106998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776388568173,
    "price": 43.809,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.24,
        "signal": -0.16,
        "histogram": -0.08
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.76,
        "middle": 44.45,
        "lower": 43.13,
        "width": 5.91
      },
      "sma20": 44.45,
      "sma50": 44.4,
      "sma200": 42.28,
      "ema12": 44.04,
      "ema26": 44.28,
      "atr14": 0.55,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 26.53,
        "d": 27.3
      },
      "adx14": 23.13,
      "obv": 138075.49801102004
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776388568173,
    "price": 43.809,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 52.08,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.59,
        "signal": 0.8,
        "histogram": -0.2
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.41,
        "middle": 44.3,
        "lower": 43.19,
        "width": 5.02
      },
      "sma20": 44.3,
      "sma50": 42.33,
      "sma200": 39.29,
      "ema12": 44.23,
      "ema26": 43.63,
      "atr14": 1.13,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 26.95,
        "d": 30.1
      },
      "adx14": 42.53,
      "obv": 1153332.3716132098
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776388568173,
    "price": 43.809,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.23,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.94,
        "signal": 1.46,
        "histogram": 0.48
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.96,
        "middle": 39.48,
        "lower": 33,
        "width": 32.81
      },
      "sma20": 39.48,
      "sma50": 37.37,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 41.94,
      "ema26": 40,
      "atr14": 2.42,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 75.12,
        "d": 78.04
      },
      "adx14": 30.64,
      "obv": -86466.76398202048
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest938728400.18
Price43.81
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss43.19
Take profit45.05
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %1.41
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score66
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence63.70
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 66.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-0.80
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score33.90
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$43.809
Funding rate
0.0001%
Open interest
$938.7M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses