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Thesis · thesis_mo2e2pid_3tw0jv
SPX

SPX

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T04:09:37Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.02%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.02%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.62%.

  • Closed -1.62% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3471
Entry high
$0.3513
Target 1
$0.3678
Target 2
$0.3792
Stop loss
$0.3342
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bullish_cross
RSI 14
57.9
Bullish
ADX 14
20.3
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.92% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.3400
Lower 0.3100
inside
SMA stack
200.3300
500.3300
2000.3800
TA Workspace · SPX
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SPX · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.347940 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 SPX
$2.33K
Leverage
0.23x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3678
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.3792
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.3342
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SPX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 107.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • VOLUME TREND replay (exact regime) scored 30.0, returned 22.70%, win rate 83.3%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME TREND is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 94.6.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 29.7, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3342, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SPX Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. SPX cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SPX
Price0.35
Timestamp1776398815182
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 61.71,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.36,
    "middle": 0.33,
    "lower": 0.31,
    "width": 15.75
  },
  "sma20": 0.33,
  "sma50": 0.32,
  "sma200": 0.3,
  "ema12": 0.34,
  "ema26": 0.33,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 69.85,
    "d": 75.38
  },
  "adx14": 29.67,
  "obv": -454800.74005999847
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776398815180,
    "price": 0.34916549,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 47.31,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 4.83
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 33.58,
        "d": 25.3
      },
      "adx14": 25.37,
      "obv": -541260.3387700001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776398815181,
    "price": 0.34916549,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.12,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.33,
        "width": 9.08
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 54.58,
        "d": 52.9
      },
      "adx14": 30.88,
      "obv": 469795.6604200003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776398815182,
    "price": 0.34916549,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.71,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.33,
        "lower": 0.31,
        "width": 15.75
      },
      "sma20": 0.33,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.85,
        "d": 75.38
      },
      "adx14": 29.67,
      "obv": -454800.74005999847
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776398815182,
    "price": 0.34916549,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.7,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.24,
        "width": 42.07
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.56,
      "ema12": 0.32,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.38,
        "d": 89.76
      },
      "adx14": 18.14,
      "obv": -72276339.03941992
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest3557230.78
Price0.35
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %2.85
Leverage2
Stop loss0.33
Take profit0.38
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %4.30
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SPX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 30.0
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score94.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence81.40
Reasons
  • VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 30.0
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 94.6.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-5.40
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score45.90
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3492
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$3.6M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
VOLUME_TREND · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See SPX chart with overlay More thesesAll SPX theses