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Thesis · thesis_mo2e9msd_11hs9v
HYPE

HYPE

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T04:15:03Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.02%
peak +0.02% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +1.93%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Captured most of the move — exit near the +1.93% peak with minimal giveback.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$43.3228
Entry high
$43.4892
Target 1
$43.9218
Target 2
$44.238
Stop loss
$42.99
HYPE · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
77.4768.4459.4150.3841.3572.765/29 11:005/30 17:005/31 23:006/2 05:006/3 11:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
58.8
Bullish
ADX 14
32.1
Trending
ATR 14
2.85
3.92% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 75.32
Lower 67.92
inside
SMA stack
2071.62
5066.08
20051.43
PatternsBearish Harami
TA Workspace · HYPE
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

HYPE · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $73.2310 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
240.3846 HYPE
$10.43K
Leverage
1.04x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
$22.6060
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 43.9218
+1.24R$123.99(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 44.238
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 42.99
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open HYPE on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 101.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • SMA CROSS replay (exact regime) scored 16.9, returned 14.15%, win rate 80.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 65.9.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 41.8, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $42.9900, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
HYPE Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. HYPE cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
HYPE
Price43.41
Timestamp1776399045194
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 48.89,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.45,
    "signal": 0.72,
    "histogram": -0.27
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 45.47,
    "middle": 44.23,
    "lower": 42.99,
    "width": 5.6
  },
  "sma20": 44.23,
  "sma50": 42.41,
  "sma200": 39.32,
  "ema12": 44.03,
  "ema26": 43.58,
  "atr14": 1.1,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 7.51,
    "d": 16.25
  },
  "adx14": 41.84,
  "obv": 1130896.7115704399
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "oversold",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5.5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776399045193,
    "price": 43.406,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 42.41,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.14,
        "signal": -0.11,
        "histogram": -0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 44.23,
        "middle": 43.69,
        "lower": 43.16,
        "width": 2.46
      },
      "sma20": 43.69,
      "sma50": 43.78,
      "sma200": 44.36,
      "ema12": 43.5,
      "ema26": 43.64,
      "atr14": 0.19,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 22.91,
        "d": 17.28
      },
      "adx14": 21.39,
      "obv": 97136.76090609995
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776399045193,
    "price": 43.406,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 39.19,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.32,
        "signal": -0.23,
        "histogram": -0.09
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.43,
        "middle": 44.15,
        "lower": 42.87,
        "width": 5.8
      },
      "sma20": 44.15,
      "sma50": 44.36,
      "sma200": 42.36,
      "ema12": 43.76,
      "ema26": 44.08,
      "atr14": 0.52,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 12.42,
        "d": 7.84
      },
      "adx14": 22.87,
      "obv": 102777.04493878012
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776399045194,
    "price": 43.406,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.89,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.45,
        "signal": 0.72,
        "histogram": -0.27
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.47,
        "middle": 44.23,
        "lower": 42.99,
        "width": 5.6
      },
      "sma20": 44.23,
      "sma50": 42.41,
      "sma200": 39.32,
      "ema12": 44.03,
      "ema26": 43.58,
      "atr14": 1.1,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 7.51,
        "d": 16.25
      },
      "adx14": 41.84,
      "obv": 1130896.7115704399
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "HYPE",
    "timestamp": 1776399045194,
    "price": 43.406,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.53,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.91,
        "signal": 1.46,
        "histogram": 0.45
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 45.89,
        "middle": 39.46,
        "lower": 33.03,
        "width": 32.57
      },
      "sma20": 39.46,
      "sma50": 37.36,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": 41.88,
      "ema26": 39.97,
      "atr14": 2.46,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 71.63,
        "d": 76.87
      },
      "adx14": 30.49,
      "obv": -98446.26404017047
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest933150516.36
Price43.41
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
low
Max position %4
Leverage3
Stop loss42.99
Take profit44.24
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %0.96
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for HYPE; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score65.90
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence63.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is high at 34.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. RSI_PULLBACK is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 65.9.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-6.80
Note
Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score49.10
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$43.406
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$933.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bear_lowvol
Replay strategy
SMA_CROSS · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See HYPE chart with overlay More thesesAll HYPE theses