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Thesis · thesis_mo2eep8u_49qoyw
KAITO

KAITO

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T04:19:03Z · expires 2026-04-18

Conviction
68/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.00%
peak +0.01% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.28%.

  • Closed +0.28% at conviction 68/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4880
Entry high
$0.4938
Target 1
$0.5095
Target 2
$0.5209
Stop loss
$0.4759
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · death cross
RSI 14
50.7
Neutral
ADX 14
15.6
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.17% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4700
Lower 0.4500
inside
SMA stack
200.4600
500.4700
2000.4800
PatternsDoji
TA Workspace · KAITO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

KAITO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.461380 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 KAITO
$3.27K
Leverage
0.33x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.5095
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.5209
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.4759
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open KAITO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • Candidate quality is 122.4 and the desk still classifies the setup as cooling down.
  • RSI TREND REENTRY replay (latest asset) scored 16.9, returned 18.30%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 67.7.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 31.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4759, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • This remains a provisional setup, so size should stay lighter and time-to-proof should stay shorter.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
KAITO Long: defensive command with guarded risk

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is still warming. KAITO cleared the desk in provisional posture, so size should stay smaller and decay should happen faster if follow-through stalls.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
KAITO
Price0.49
Timestamp1776399398484
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 74.46,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.49,
    "middle": 0.45,
    "lower": 0.42,
    "width": 15.98
  },
  "sma20": 0.45,
  "sma50": 0.42,
  "sma200": 0.4,
  "ema12": 0.46,
  "ema26": 0.45,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 100,
    "d": 98.13
  },
  "adx14": 31.02,
  "obv": 123312.57427000001
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "above_upper",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Doji"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776399398482,
    "price": 0.4909,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 80.01,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.49,
        "middle": 0.48,
        "lower": 0.47,
        "width": 3.99
      },
      "sma20": 0.48,
      "sma50": 0.47,
      "sma200": 0.46,
      "ema12": 0.49,
      "ema26": 0.48,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 97.15
      },
      "adx14": 45.01,
      "obv": -2362.4748100000024
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776399398482,
    "price": 0.4909,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 73.98,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.49,
        "middle": 0.47,
        "lower": 0.44,
        "width": 10.69
      },
      "sma20": 0.47,
      "sma50": 0.46,
      "sma200": 0.42,
      "ema12": 0.48,
      "ema26": 0.47,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 94.09
      },
      "adx14": 31.94,
      "obv": -41554.53693999998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776399398483,
    "price": 0.4909,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 74.46,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.49,
        "middle": 0.45,
        "lower": 0.42,
        "width": 15.98
      },
      "sma20": 0.45,
      "sma50": 0.42,
      "sma200": 0.4,
      "ema12": 0.46,
      "ema26": 0.45,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 98.13
      },
      "adx14": 31.02,
      "obv": 123312.57427000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776399398484,
    "price": 0.4909,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.42,
        "lower": 0.37,
        "width": 25.97
      },
      "sma20": 0.42,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.61,
      "ema12": 0.44,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 100,
        "d": 89.05
      },
      "adx14": 37.88,
      "obv": 605431.1438999994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest2213798.87
Price0.49
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.47
Leverage2
Stop loss0.48
Take profit0.52
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.06
Warnings
  • RSI 74.5 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for KAITO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score67.70
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence67.90
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • setup remains in cooldown
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 67.7.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score2
Note
Recent thesis reached the first target cleanly; the desk can recycle the asset after a short reset.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score46.10
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4909
Funding rate
-0.0037%
Open interest
$2.2M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_TREND_REENTRY · latest_asset
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
provisional
Brain mode
fast
See KAITO chart with overlay More thesesAll KAITO theses