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Thesis · thesis_mo2f8tl3_zp6ii3
SOL

SOL

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 93d ago · 2026-04-17T04:42:24Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.00% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -0.60%.

  • Closed -0.60% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$87.672
Entry high
$88.608
Target 1
$91.0416
Target 2
$92.82
Stop loss
$85.80
SOL · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
93.7988.4383.0777.7172.3576.047/14 20:007/16 02:007/17 08:007/18 14:007/19 20:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · lowSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
52.7
Neutral
ADX 14
14.2
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.8100
1.06% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 76.39
Lower 74.39
inside
SMA stack
2075.39
5076.17
20075.20
PatternsBullish HaramiBullish Marubozu
TA Workspace · SOL
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SOL · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $76.0390 · max 20x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
42.735 SOL
$3.77K
Leverage
0.38x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 91.0416
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 92.82
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 85.8
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SOL on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 90.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 16.8, returned 8.68%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. RSI PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 33.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $85.8000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis
SOL Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. SOL cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SOL
Price88.14
Timestamp1776400802855
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 61.51,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 1.19,
    "signal": 0.82,
    "histogram": 0.38
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 89.43,
    "middle": 85.67,
    "lower": 81.9,
    "width": 8.79
  },
  "sma20": 85.67,
  "sma50": 84.31,
  "sma200": 85.51,
  "ema12": 86.77,
  "ema26": 85.57,
  "atr14": 1.56,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 69.74,
    "d": 72.44
  },
  "adx14": 33.44,
  "obv": -67484.84211959968
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "death_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776400802854,
    "price": 88.14,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 48.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": -0.15,
        "signal": -0.12,
        "histogram": -0.03
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 89.14,
        "middle": 88.25,
        "lower": 87.36,
        "width": 2.01
      },
      "sma20": 88.25,
      "sma50": 88.34,
      "sma200": 85.48,
      "ema12": 88.06,
      "ema26": 88.21,
      "atr14": 0.33,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 43.54,
        "d": 37.24
      },
      "adx14": 26.14,
      "obv": 174975.0943774599
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Gravestone Doji"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776400802854,
    "price": 88.14,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.4,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.85,
        "signal": 0.95,
        "histogram": -0.09
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 90.82,
        "middle": 87.35,
        "lower": 83.88,
        "width": 7.95
      },
      "sma20": 87.35,
      "sma50": 85.56,
      "sma200": 84.17,
      "ema12": 88.04,
      "ema26": 87.19,
      "atr14": 0.87,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 54.26,
        "d": 57.4
      },
      "adx14": 30.64,
      "obv": 177269.40725818003
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776400802855,
    "price": 88.14,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 61.51,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 1.19,
        "signal": 0.82,
        "histogram": 0.38
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 89.43,
        "middle": 85.67,
        "lower": 81.9,
        "width": 8.79
      },
      "sma20": 85.67,
      "sma50": 84.31,
      "sma200": 85.51,
      "ema12": 86.77,
      "ema26": 85.57,
      "atr14": 1.56,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 69.74,
        "d": 72.44
      },
      "adx14": 33.44,
      "obv": -67484.84211959968
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SOL",
    "timestamp": 1776400802855,
    "price": 88.14,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.29,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.21,
        "signal": -0.62,
        "histogram": 0.84
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 88.58,
        "middle": 83.28,
        "lower": 77.98,
        "width": 12.73
      },
      "sma20": 83.28,
      "sma50": 85.8,
      "sma200": 127.59,
      "ema12": 85.23,
      "ema26": 85.02,
      "atr14": 4.22,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 80.53,
        "d": 81.28
      },
      "adx14": 11.32,
      "obv": -6664376.470015221
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest329838753.80
Price88.14
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.67
Leverage2
Stop loss85.80
Take profit92.82
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %2.65
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SOL; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
  • Live learning: Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab B is constructive
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.8
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score100
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence91.60
Reasons
  • RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 24.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.8
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. RSI_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.
Live-learning brain
State
penalizing
Score-10.90
Note
Recent stopped thesis is still cooling down.
Strategy commander brain
State
warming
Score53.90
Note
Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab brain
State
constructive
Evidence Grade
B
Note
Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$88.14
Funding rate
-0.0024%
Open interest
$329.8M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
warming
Strategy lab
constructive
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See SOL chart with overlay More thesesAll SOL theses