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Thesis · thesis_mo2iw99f_kipppw
GRASS

GRASS

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T06:24:35Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.01%
peak +0.06% · MAE +0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed +0.90%.

  • Closed +0.90% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.3601
Entry high
$0.3644
Target 1
$0.3774
Target 2
$0.3868
Stop loss
$0.3500
GRASS · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.54810.49620.44430.39250.34060.46685/29 01:005/30 07:005/31 13:006/1 19:006/3 01:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
46.3
Neutral
ADX 14
25.1
Trending
ATR 14
0.0300
6.48% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.5000
Lower 0.4400
inside
SMA stack
200.4700
500.4900
2000.4000
TA Workspace · GRASS
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

GRASS · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.474490 · max 3x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
8,163.2653 GRASS
$2.96K
Leverage
0.30x
≤ 3x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.3774
+1.24R$123.67(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.3868
+2.00R$200.41(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.35
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open GRASS on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h structure leans constructive.
  • 1d ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 113.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI PULLBACK replay (exact regime) scored 27.7, returned 22.72%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 88.6.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 25.4, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.3500, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
GRASS Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. GRASS cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
GRASS
Price0.36
Timestamp1776406918179
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 59.55,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.37,
    "middle": 0.35,
    "lower": 0.32,
    "width": 15.86
  },
  "sma20": 0.35,
  "sma50": 0.34,
  "sma200": 0.33,
  "ema12": 0.35,
  "ema26": 0.35,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 70.72,
    "d": 63.38
  },
  "adx14": 25.4,
  "obv": -485740.9877099998
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 7.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776406918178,
    "price": 0.36225,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.35,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.36,
        "width": 3.13
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.36,
      "sma200": 0.35,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 50,
        "d": 69.4
      },
      "adx14": 36.39,
      "obv": 39623.55963
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776406918179,
    "price": 0.36225,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 56.5,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.36,
        "lower": 0.35,
        "width": 5.86
      },
      "sma20": 0.36,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.36,
      "ema26": 0.36,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.2,
        "d": 89.86
      },
      "adx14": 16.02,
      "obv": 61943.38578999996
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776406918179,
    "price": 0.36225,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.32,
        "width": 15.86
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.33,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 70.72,
        "d": 63.38
      },
      "adx14": 25.4,
      "obv": -485740.9877099998
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "GRASS",
    "timestamp": 1776406918179,
    "price": 0.36225,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.4,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.37,
        "middle": 0.31,
        "lower": 0.25,
        "width": 37.82
      },
      "sma20": 0.31,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 86.95,
        "d": 82.63
      },
      "adx14": 27.24,
      "obv": -70489.00902000014
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest1503547.71
Price0.36
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.31
Leverage2
Stop loss0.35
Take profit0.39
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.38
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for GRASS; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: standard_guarded at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 27.7
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score88.60
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence78.50
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 27.7
  • warming memory still aligns with supportive exact-regime replay
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 88.6.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score1.40
Note
Recent target hit was messy, so the desk still wants a short reset before re-entry.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score43.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.3623
Funding rate
0.0013%
Open interest
$1.5M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
RSI_PULLBACK · exact_regime
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See GRASS chart with overlay More thesesAll GRASS theses