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Thesis · thesis_mo2j6d69_tqr0wa
SUI

SUI

 longWIN 1-3d

Generated 94d ago · 2026-04-17T06:32:29Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
+0.02%
peak +0.06% · MAE -0.00%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed +2.04%.

  • High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
  • Ran to +5.90% at peak but closed +2.04% — gave back 3.86pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
  • Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.9745
Entry high
$0.9863
Target 1
$1.0176
Target 2
$1.0404
Stop loss
$0.9504
SUI · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
1.05640.96860.88090.79310.70540.76337/15 17:007/16 23:007/18 05:007/19 11:007/20 17:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · lowSMA · golden cross
RSI 14
64.3
Bullish
ADX 14
11.7
No trend / chop
ATR 14
0.0100
1.31% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.7600
Lower 0.7300
above upper
SMA stack
200.7500
500.7400
2000.7300
TA Workspace · SUI
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SUI · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.763200 · max 10x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
3,333.3333 SUI
$3.27K
Leverage
0.33x
≤ 10x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 1.0176
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 1.0404
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.9504
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open SUI on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Replay supports the live regime read.
  • Candidate quality is 79.2 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • STOCHASTIC REVERSAL replay (exact regime) scored 14.9, returned 12.68%, win rate 66.7%.
  • FredAI keeps the setup on watch. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 65.5.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 34.0, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.9504, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
SUI Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Regime fit is strong. Strategy command is defensive. SUI cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
SUI
Timestamp1776407407251
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 62.55,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1,
    "middle": 0.96,
    "lower": 0.92,
    "width": 9.14
  },
  "sma20": null,
  "sma50": null,
  "sma200": null,
  "ema12": null,
  "ema26": null,
  "atr14": 0.02,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 0,
    "d": 52.67
  },
  "adx14": 33.99,
  "obv": -11378249.01418
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bearish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "none",
  "patterns": []
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 6.5,
  "bearScore": 7,
  "overallBias": "neutral"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776407407249,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 37.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1,
        "middle": 0.99,
        "lower": 0.97,
        "width": 2.48
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 6.55
      },
      "adx14": 26.66,
      "obv": -1266304.7142000005
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 8.5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bear"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776407407250,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 45.84,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.01,
        "middle": 0.99,
        "lower": 0.96,
        "width": 5.06
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 17.84
      },
      "adx14": 39.62,
      "obv": 2184302.201490001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "oversold",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5,
      "bearScore": 7.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776407407250,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.55,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1,
        "middle": 0.96,
        "lower": 0.92,
        "width": 9.14
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 52.67
      },
      "adx14": 33.99,
      "obv": -11378249.01418
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "neutral"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SUI",
    "timestamp": 1776407407251,
    "price": null,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 59.72,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.99,
        "middle": 0.91,
        "lower": 0.82,
        "width": 19.24
      },
      "sma20": null,
      "sma50": null,
      "sma200": null,
      "ema12": null,
      "ema26": null,
      "atr14": 0.05,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 0,
        "d": 59.4
      },
      "adx14": 12.95,
      "obv": -222834752.4212798
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bearish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "none",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 5.5,
      "bearScore": 6.5,
      "overallBias": "bear"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate0.00
Open Interest18255956.97
Price0.98
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.47
Leverage2
Stop loss0.95
Take profit1.04
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.06
Warnings
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for SUI; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 38.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
  • FredAI watch state has a directional spread
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 30.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.9
FredAI policy
State
watch
Score65.50
Conviction Adjustment2
Risk Adjustment0
Confidence62.50
Reasons
  • STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming
  • overfit penalty is elevated at 30.0
  • exact-regime replay is available
  • replay remains supportive with score 14.9
Note
FredAI keeps the setup on watch. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 65.5.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score0
Note
Recent thesis completed cleanly; the asset can be reloaded sooner if a fresh setup appears.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score39.80
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
warming
Evidence Grade
C
Note
Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.9804
Funding rate
0.0094%
Open interest
$18.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay regime
disinflation_range_bull_lowvol
Replay strategy
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL · exact_regime
FredAI policy
watch
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
warming
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See SUI chart with overlay More thesesAll SUI theses