Thesis · thesis_mo2jt2np_zzfvwi

NEAR

longLOSS 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T06:50:10Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.01%

peak +0.01% · MAE -0.03%

R:R

1.8:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis invalidated — closed -1.35%.

Conviction was high (74/100) but the trade lost — a calibration miss the reflection loop should weight.
Max adverse excursion hit -2.83% — the stop did its job containing downside at the planned invalidation level.
Planned at 1.8:1 R:R — one loss at this ratio is expected variance; the edge is in the aggregate, not any single call.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$1.4153

Entry high

$1.4229

Target 1

$1.4404

Target 2

$1.4535

Stop loss

$1.40

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · bullishMomentum · overboughtVolatility · highSMA · golden cross

RSI 14

69.2

Bullish

ADX 14

27.5

Trending

ATR 14

0.1600

5.37% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 2.99

Lower 2.11

inside

SMA stack

202.55

502.50

2001.87

TA Workspace · NEAR

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

NEAR · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $3.0114 · max 10x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 10x)

Trade plan

Position size

5,235.6021 NEAR

$7.43K

Leverage

0.74x

≤ 10x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 1.80

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 1.4404

+1.12R$111.52(+1.12%)

T2 hit @ 1.4535

+1.80R$180.10(+1.80%)

Stop hit @ 1.4

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open NEAR on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h structure leans constructive.
1h structure leans constructive.
1d ADX confirms trend strength.
Candidate quality is 117.6 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
RSI PULLBACK replay (latest asset) scored 25.2, returned 17.54%, win rate 100.0%.
FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Bear case

ADX is only near 20.4, so the setup still carries meaningful chop risk.
The stop band sits near $1.4000, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

attack

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming.

Final thesis

NEAR Long: attack command backs the directional case

The desk sees enough aligned evidence to let the setup trade with normal urgency. Strategy evidence remains constructive. Strategy command is still warming. NEAR cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

NEAR

Price1.42

Timestamp1776408454144

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 55.64,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 1.45,
    "middle": 1.4,
    "lower": 1.35,
    "width": 7.44
  },
  "sma20": 1.4,
  "sma50": 1.38,
  "sma200": 1.3,
  "ema12": 1.41,
  "ema26": 1.4,
  "atr14": 0.03,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 76.88,
    "d": 79.16
  },
  "adx14": 20.39,
  "obv": 2431524.5841657487
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "normal",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 7,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776408454142,
    "price": 1.41911054,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.38,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.42,
        "middle": 1.41,
        "lower": 1.39,
        "width": 2.03
      },
      "sma20": 1.41,
      "sma50": 1.42,
      "sma200": 1.4,
      "ema12": 1.41,
      "ema26": 1.41,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 96.44,
        "d": 71.83
      },
      "adx14": 17.93,
      "obv": -262465.03749293997
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776408454143,
    "price": 1.41911054,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 53.02,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.45,
        "middle": 1.41,
        "lower": 1.38,
        "width": 4.69
      },
      "sma20": 1.41,
      "sma50": 1.4,
      "sma200": 1.38,
      "ema12": 1.41,
      "ema26": 1.41,
      "atr14": 0.02,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 60.91,
        "d": 37.77
      },
      "adx14": 16.65,
      "obv": 798134.3107664301
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776408454143,
    "price": 1.41911054,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 55.64,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.45,
        "middle": 1.4,
        "lower": 1.35,
        "width": 7.44
      },
      "sma20": 1.4,
      "sma50": 1.38,
      "sma200": 1.3,
      "ema12": 1.41,
      "ema26": 1.4,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 76.88,
        "d": 79.16
      },
      "adx14": 20.39,
      "obv": 2431524.5841657487
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "normal",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 7,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "NEAR",
    "timestamp": 1776408454144,
    "price": 1.41911054,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 60.66,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.04,
        "signal": 0.03,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 1.49,
        "middle": 1.3,
        "lower": 1.11,
        "width": 29.33
      },
      "sma20": 1.3,
      "sma50": 1.29,
      "sma200": 1.69,
      "ema12": 1.37,
      "ema26": 1.32,
      "atr14": 0.07,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 90.3,
        "d": 92.38
      },
      "adx14": 29.73,
      "obv": -2522952.4878452434
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest37487215.41

Price1.42

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

low

Max position %4

Leverage3

Stop loss1.40

Take profit1.45

Risk:Reward

1.8:1

Max drawdown %1.35

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for NEAR; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.
Live learning: Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
Strategy lab B is constructive
STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 25.2
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score100

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence89.80

Reasons

STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory
replay remains supportive with score 25.2
LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. STOCHASTIC_REVERSAL is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 100.0.

Live-learning brain

State

cooling

Score-1.40

Note

Recent live theses showed some follow-through before breaking, so the desk wants a cleaner reset before re-entry.

Strategy commander brain

State

warming

Score49.30

Note

Strategy lab is usable, but AI should command conservatively while evidence builds.

Strategy lab brain

State

constructive

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is constructive and can support normal AI command, but the desk should still respect regime fit.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$1.4191

Funding rate

0.0013%

Open interest

$37.5M

Macro regime

disinflation_range_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_range_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

RSI_PULLBACK · latest_asset

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

warming

Strategy lab

constructive

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See NEAR chart with overlay More theses All NEAR theses