Thesis · thesis_mo2pkdok_bt630y

SPX

longWIN 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T09:31:25Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction

74/100

Bull / Bear

78/46

Analyst scores

Realized PnL

-0.09%

peak +0.07% · MAE -0.14%

R:R

2.0:1

Reward over risk

Post-mortem

LONG · auto-derived

Thesis played out — closed -9.37%.

High conviction (74/100) was rewarded — the desk's confidence matched the result.
Ran to +6.82% at peak but closed -9.37% — gave back 16.19pts. A trailing stop would have captured more of the move.
Survived a -13.98% drawdown before working — the stop was wide enough to absorb noise without invalidating the thesis.
Planned at 2.0:1 reward-to-risk — a favorable payoff structure that paid off this time.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels

Entry low

$0.3532

Entry high

$0.3574

Target 1

$0.3739

Target 2

$0.3853

Stop loss

$0.3403

Technical analysis · 4h

Open in Chart Lab

Trend · neutralMomentum · neutralVolatility · highSMA · death crossMACD · bullish_cross

RSI 14

57.9

Bullish

ADX 14

20.3

Weak trend

ATR 14

0.0100

2.92% of price

Bollinger 20 · 2σ

Upper 0.3400

Lower 0.3100

inside

SMA stack

200.3300

500.3300

2000.3800

TA Workspace · SPX

Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

SPX · 4H4H technical map

Syncing

Layers

Drawing technical layers...

Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan

Inputs

Asset

Mark $0.346330 · max 5x

Direction

Entry

Stop

Target 1 (optional)

Target 2 (optional)

Account USD

Risk per trade

Max lev (≤ 5x)

Trade plan

Position size

6,666.6667 SPX

$2.37K

Leverage

0.24x

≤ 5x cap

Effective risk

$100.00

1.00% of account

Liq estimate

—

approx · verify on HL

Stop P&L

-$100.00

1.00% of account

R:R potential

1 : 2.00

Scenarios

T1 hit @ 0.3739

+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)

T2 hit @ 0.3853

+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)

Stop hit @ 0.3403

-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)

Open SPX on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.

Bull case

4h ADX confirms trend strength.
1h ADX confirms trend strength.
Candidate quality is 85.8 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
VOLUME TREND replay (exact regime) scored 30.0, returned 22.70%, win rate 83.3%.
FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME TREND is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 86.6.
Historical lane Swing Long still reads constructively: Closed-history edge is weak and has produced too many bad starts, so the desk should demand stronger confirmation.

Bear case

ADX is near 28.5, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
The stop band sits near $0.3403, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path.

Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate

Debate transcript

Commander verdict

selective

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis

SPX Long: selective command backs the directional case

The desk sees a tradable idea, but the evidence stack is mixed enough that timing matters. Simulation leadership is dominant with a clear winner. Strategy command is defensive. SPX cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo

Asset

SPX

Price0.36

Timestamp1776418131185

Indicators

{
  "rsi14": 64.1,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.01,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.36,
    "middle": 0.34,
    "lower": 0.31,
    "width": 16.21
  },
  "sma20": 0.34,
  "sma50": 0.32,
  "sma200": 0.3,
  "ema12": 0.34,
  "ema26": 0.33,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 82.57,
    "d": 72.39
  },
  "adx14": 28.51,
  "obv": -324069.8367499986
}

Signals

{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "neutral",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Engulfing",
    "Bullish Marubozu"
  ]
}

Composite

{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 5,
  "overallBias": "strong_bull"
}

Timeframes

{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776418131184,
    "price": 0.3553,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 66.57,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.35,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 3.77
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.35,
      "sma200": 0.34,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 97.48,
        "d": 99.16
      },
      "adx14": 19.76,
      "obv": -463926.67252000014
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776418131184,
    "price": 0.3553,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 58.82,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.35,
        "lower": 0.34,
        "width": 8.04
      },
      "sma20": 0.35,
      "sma50": 0.34,
      "sma200": 0.32,
      "ema12": 0.35,
      "ema26": 0.35,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 66.51,
        "d": 43.21
      },
      "adx14": 24.51,
      "obv": 471405.8384000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776418131185,
    "price": 0.3553,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 64.1,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.34,
        "lower": 0.31,
        "width": 16.21
      },
      "sma20": 0.34,
      "sma50": 0.32,
      "sma200": 0.3,
      "ema12": 0.34,
      "ema26": 0.33,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 82.57,
        "d": 72.39
      },
      "adx14": 28.51,
      "obv": -324069.8367499986
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Engulfing",
        "Bullish Marubozu"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "strong_bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "SPX",
    "timestamp": 1776418131185,
    "price": 0.3553,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 62.61,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.36,
        "middle": 0.3,
        "lower": 0.23,
        "width": 42.73
      },
      "sma20": 0.3,
      "sma50": 0.31,
      "sma200": 0.56,
      "ema12": 0.32,
      "ema26": 0.31,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 92.13,
        "d": 91.67
      },
      "adx14": 18.14,
      "obv": -72411662.65558992
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "neutral",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bearish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 6.5,
      "bearScore": 5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}

Sentiment analyst memo

Funding Rate0.00

Open Interest3652065.81

Price0.36

Risk officer memo

Approvedyes

Risk rating

medium

Max position %2.89

Leverage2

Stop loss0.34

Take profit0.39

Risk:Reward

2.0:1

Max drawdown %4.22

Warnings

Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path

Adjustments

Deterministic fallback risk for SPX; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.

Directional decision

Direction

long

Spread25

Dominant Conviction78

Threshold10

Calibrated debate

Bull Conviction78

Bear Conviction25

Notes

Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 34.
Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab: Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.
Live learning: Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.
FredAI promote state
Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
Strategy lab B is constructive
VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming
overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 30.0

FredAI policy

State

promote

Score86.60

Conviction Adjustment6

Risk Adjustment2

Confidence76.20

Reasons

VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming
overfit penalty is elevated at 22.0
exact-regime replay is available
replay remains supportive with score 30.0

Note

FredAI promotes this setup. VOLUME_TREND is still graded C and warming. Policy confidence 86.6.

Live-learning brain

State

penalizing

Score-7.20

Note

Recent thesis expired without clean follow-through; wait for a fresher reset.

Strategy commander brain

State

cautious

Score33.10

Note

Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.

Strategy lab brain

State

warming

Evidence Grade

Note

Strategy lab is warming and should support only measured AI command while the winner stabilizes.

Market snapshot at generation

Mark price

$0.3553

Funding rate

0.0013%

Open interest

$3.7M

Macro regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay regime

disinflation_drift_bull_lowvol

Replay strategy

VOLUME_TREND · exact_regime

FredAI policy

promote

Strategy command

cautious

Strategy lab

warming

Desk posture

standard

Brain mode

fast

See SPX chart with overlay More theses All SPX theses