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Thesis · thesis_mo2ttvjx_t17bmo
KAITO

KAITO

 longFLAT 1-3d

Generated 47d ago · 2026-04-17T11:30:43Z · expires 2026-04-20

Conviction
74/100
Bull / Bear
78/46
Analyst scores
Realized PnL
-0.01%
peak +0.03% · MAE -0.01%
R:R
2.0:1
Reward over risk
Post-mortem
LONG · auto-derived

Thesis expired flat — closed -1.06%.

  • Closed -1.06% at conviction 74/100. No standout execution signal — a routine outcome inside expected variance.

Derived deterministically from stored entry/target/stop levels, peak PnL, and max adverse excursion. No model inference — every line maps to a number in the ledger.

Price levels
Entry low
$0.4843
Entry high
$0.4901
Target 1
$0.5058
Target 2
$0.5172
Stop loss
$0.4722
KAITO · 1h candles · last 121
Entry / Target / Stop overlaid
0.52120.49920.47710.45510.4330.46415/29 13:005/30 19:006/1 01:006/2 07:006/3 13:00
Technical analysis · 4h
Open in Chart Lab
Trend · bearishMomentum · neutralVolatility · normalSMA · death cross
RSI 14
52.5
Neutral
ADX 14
15.5
Weak trend
ATR 14
0.0100
2.15% of price
Bollinger 20 · 2σ
Upper 0.4700
Lower 0.4500
inside
SMA stack
200.4600
500.4700
2000.4800
TA Workspace · KAITO
Full workspace

Candles + Bollinger bands (20·2σ) + SMA 20/50 overlays + price-action arrows (engulf / breakout / reclaim / reject) + support and resistance zones. Toggle layers from the panel controls. For the full workspace with presets and split timeframes, click "Full workspace".

KAITO · 4H4H technical map
Syncing
Layers
Drawing technical layers...
Follow this thesis· pre-filled trade plan
Inputs
Mark $0.463790 · max 5x
$
$
$
$
$
%
x
Trade plan
Position size
6,666.6667 KAITO
$3.25K
Leverage
0.32x
≤ 5x cap
Effective risk
$100.00
1.00% of account
Liq estimate
—
approx · verify on HL
Stop P&L
-$100.00
1.00% of account
R:R potential
1 : 2.00
T2
Scenarios
T1 hit @ 0.5058
+1.24R$124.00(+1.24%)
T2 hit @ 0.5172
+2.00R$200.00(+2.00%)
Stop hit @ 0.4722
-1.00R-$100.00(-1.00%)
Open KAITO on HyperliquidSet the side / leverage / order type yourself in HL — this calculator does not auto-execute.
Bull case
  • 4h RSI is hot, but the trend still holds.
  • 4h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • 1h ADX confirms trend strength.
  • Candidate quality is 86.0 and the desk still classifies the setup as ready for publication.
  • RSI TREND REENTRY replay (latest asset) scored 16.9, returned 18.30%, win rate 100.0%.
  • FredAI promotes this setup. EMA PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 71.0.
Bear case
  • ADX is near 32.9, so trend force is present but follow-through still needs monitoring.
  • The stop band sits near $0.4722, and any failure to move cleanly away from entry should be treated as an early warning.
  • RSI 71.5 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
Oracle Debate

See the bull vs bear showdown

Side-by-side debate with score visualizer, individual argument cards, and verdict synthesis. The marketing-grade view of how the thesis was built.

Open Oracle Debate
Debate transcript
Commander verdict
defensive

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive.

Final thesis
KAITO Long: defensive command backs the directional case

The desk is still defensive here, so the setup only works if invalidation stays tight and follow-through appears quickly. Desk policy is comfortable letting the thesis run. Strategy command is defensive. KAITO cleared the desk with the LONG case leading on structure, while the opposing case remains tactical rather than dominant.

Technical analyst memo
Asset
KAITO
Price0.49
Timestamp1776425267201
Indicators
{
  "rsi14": 71.49,
  "macd": {
    "macd": 0.02,
    "signal": 0.01,
    "histogram": 0
  },
  "bollingerBands": {
    "upper": 0.49,
    "middle": 0.45,
    "lower": 0.42,
    "width": 15.55
  },
  "sma20": 0.45,
  "sma50": 0.43,
  "sma200": 0.4,
  "ema12": 0.47,
  "ema26": 0.45,
  "atr14": 0.01,
  "stochastic": {
    "k": 84.69,
    "d": 87.07
  },
  "adx14": 32.88,
  "obv": 118906.19634000001
}
Signals
{
  "trend": "bullish",
  "momentum": "overbought",
  "volatility": "high",
  "macdCross": "none",
  "bbPosition": "inside",
  "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
  "patterns": [
    "Bullish Harami"
  ]
}
Composite
{
  "bullScore": 8.5,
  "bearScore": 6,
  "overallBias": "bull"
}
Timeframes
{
  "15m": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776425267197,
    "price": 0.4872,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 57.95,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0,
        "signal": 0,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.49,
        "middle": 0.48,
        "lower": 0.48,
        "width": 1.44
      },
      "sma20": 0.48,
      "sma50": 0.48,
      "sma200": 0.46,
      "ema12": 0.48,
      "ema26": 0.48,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 79.42,
        "d": 41.55
      },
      "adx14": 14.44,
      "obv": -477.35683000000137
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "bullish_cross",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776425267198,
    "price": 0.4872,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 65.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.01,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.49,
        "middle": 0.48,
        "lower": 0.46,
        "width": 6.19
      },
      "sma20": 0.48,
      "sma50": 0.46,
      "sma200": 0.42,
      "ema12": 0.48,
      "ema26": 0.48,
      "atr14": 0,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 62.77,
        "d": 53.42
      },
      "adx14": 36.05,
      "obv": -32500.752840000016
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "neutral",
      "volatility": "low",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8,
      "bearScore": 5.5,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "4h": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776425267199,
    "price": 0.4872,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.49,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.01,
        "histogram": 0
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.49,
        "middle": 0.45,
        "lower": 0.42,
        "width": 15.55
      },
      "sma20": 0.45,
      "sma50": 0.43,
      "sma200": 0.4,
      "ema12": 0.47,
      "ema26": 0.45,
      "atr14": 0.01,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 84.69,
        "d": 87.07
      },
      "adx14": 32.88,
      "obv": 118906.19634000001
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "inside",
      "smaTrend": "golden_cross",
      "patterns": [
        "Bullish Harami"
      ]
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 6,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  },
  "1d": {
    "asset": "KAITO",
    "timestamp": 1776425267201,
    "price": 0.4872,
    "indicators": {
      "rsi14": 71.36,
      "macd": {
        "macd": 0.02,
        "signal": 0.02,
        "histogram": 0.01
      },
      "bollingerBands": {
        "upper": 0.48,
        "middle": 0.42,
        "lower": 0.37,
        "width": 25.56
      },
      "sma20": 0.42,
      "sma50": 0.39,
      "sma200": 0.61,
      "ema12": 0.44,
      "ema26": 0.42,
      "atr14": 0.03,
      "stochastic": {
        "k": 91.03,
        "d": 86.05
      },
      "adx14": 37.99,
      "obv": 612214.7051299994
    },
    "signals": {
      "trend": "bullish",
      "momentum": "overbought",
      "volatility": "high",
      "macdCross": "none",
      "bbPosition": "above_upper",
      "smaTrend": "death_cross",
      "patterns": []
    },
    "composite": {
      "bullScore": 8.5,
      "bearScore": 7,
      "overallBias": "bull"
    }
  }
}
Sentiment analyst memo
Funding Rate-0.00
Open Interest2293854.53
Price0.49
Risk officer memo
Approvedyes
Risk rating
medium
Max position %3.46
Leverage2
Stop loss0.47
Take profit0.52
Risk:Reward
2.0:1
Max drawdown %3.08
Warnings
  • RSI 71.5 is stretched; follow-through may fade quickly.
  • Model risk fallback used after: scheduler fast path
Adjustments
Deterministic fallback risk for KAITO; keep size conservative until model risk manager confirms the setup.
Directional decision
Direction
long
Spread25
Dominant Conviction78
Threshold10
Calibrated debate
Bull Conviction78
Bear Conviction25
Notes
  • Scheduler fast path used deterministic thesis synthesis to preserve execution speed.
  • Fast-path direction gate: strategy_commander_conflict at 39.
  • Strategy commander: Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
  • Strategy lab: Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
  • Live learning: Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
  • FredAI promote state
  • Desk edge is weak, so provisional relaxation is disabled
  • Strategy commander conflicts with the desk direction
  • Strategy lab is fragile, so fast-path confidence is capped
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
FredAI policy
State
promote
Score71
Conviction Adjustment6
Risk Adjustment2
Confidence70.10
Reasons
  • EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory
  • replay remains supportive with score 16.9
  • LONG desk bias has 100 confidence
  • multi-timeframe TA aligns with the desk bias
Note
FredAI promotes this setup. EMA_PULLBACK is graded B in current memory. Policy confidence 71.0.
Live-learning brain
State
cooling
Score-1
Note
Recent thesis expired after partial progress; the idea can recycle sooner if structure improves again.
Strategy commander brain
State
cautious
Score17.30
Note
Strategy lab is weak here, so AI should stay defensive.
Strategy lab brain
State
fragile
Evidence Grade
D
Note
Strategy lab is fragile, so AI should stay selective and avoid forcing a simulation story.
Market snapshot at generation
Mark price
$0.4872
Funding rate
-0.0070%
Open interest
$2.3M
Macro regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay regime
disinflation_drift_bull_normalvol
Replay strategy
RSI_TREND_REENTRY · latest_asset
FredAI policy
promote
Strategy command
cautious
Strategy lab
fragile
Desk posture
standard
Brain mode
fast
See KAITO chart with overlay More thesesAll KAITO theses